Revolution From Within: Is Violent Political Confrontation Imminent In Pakistan?

Imran Khan

"Change isn't coming...its here!" says Imran Khan to his supporters.

But what sort of change is it going to be?

[We don't know yet, but I am updating this post more or less continuously. Scroll down for the latest.]

With bated breath and a growing sense of horror, I am tracking current events in Pakistan, where Imran Khan looks determined to lead more than 50,000 unarmed supporters on a march through barricades reportedly guarded by police, military, and/or paramilitary forces.

Imran became a national hero as the captain of the only Pakistani cricket team to win a World Cup, and he did it by taking matters into his own hands, dominating the final game, apparently through force of will. After he retired from cricket, he became a philanthropist, creating a foundation to raise money to build hospitals, in a country where they were badly needed. And then he became politician.

Imran addressed the PTI rally on Monday.
[White Star photo via Dawn]

As leader of the PTI party, he has been gradually gaining ground "within the system." But now he is suddenly working "outside the system," leading a protest demanding the resignation of the Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif.

Nawaz Sharif says he will negotiate on any issue except resignation. Imran says resignation is his only non-negotiable demand, and that he is prepared to lead a procession of unarmed supporters into Islamabad's heavily guarded "Red Zone," seeking the immediate overthrow of the government.

Imran says there's a game-changing announcement coming at 8pm local time tonight -- less than two hours from now, as I write. And even Reuters has begun to pay attention.

Red Zone: Pakistan Army puts Islamabad troops on 'high alert'

I have been paying close attention to Dawn, the Pakistani daily. Dawn's home page is updated frequently and the coverage is usually quite good.

Peshawar's The Frontier Post is another good source at the moment.

I will update this post as time permits. But for the moment, here are a few links:

Dangerous game: PTI to march into Red Zone with women, children

Nawaz meets COAS [Army Chief of Staff] to discuss security situation

Needless to say, Dawn's editorial staff does not approve of PTI’s latest move, speculating that is represents Imran's exit strategy and a dangerous kind of political theatre.

There's more background and links to previous coverage here: Imran launches 'don't pay taxes' movement

LATER:

Dawn says: Red Zone security handed over to Pakistan Army: Nisar

Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan on Tuesday evening announced that Pakistan Army has been given the responsibility of securing the federal capital’s sensitive Red Zone area.

The Frontier Post is reporting that Imran is surrounded: Forces surround Imran Khan's container

An hour before the dead line for the March towards Red zone ends, the law enforcement agencies have besieged Chairman Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan’s container present at PTI's dharna venue in Islamabad.

The roads to Islamabad have also been blocked and the rangers have surrounded the parliament house.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had earlier issued strict orders to the police, not to use force.

Meanwhile, also according to The Frontier Post: Government agrees to PTI's five demands: sources

The federal government has agreed to fulfill Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) five demands including recount in disputed constituencies, electoral reforms, formation of new election commission and action against those involved in election rigging, Local TV reported on Tuesday.

So perhaps violence will be avoided.

However, Dawn reports the march is still on: Red Zone: Imran says I’ll lead, you follow

Hours after the deadline given to the government by the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) expired, PTI Chairman Imran Khan on Tuesday evening urged his followers and supporters to march into the federal capital’s Red Zone.

Speaking to his supporters near the most sensitive area of the country, Imran called on his supporters to follow him up to Parliament and surround the building. He asked his supporters to remain peaceful and not enter the building itself.

Reiterating that he would lead the march forward himself, the PTI Chairman thanked God for "fulfilling his desire of waking up the nation."

“We are not Pashtuns, Sindhis, Balochs or Punjabis, but only Pakistanis today.”

He asked his protesters whether they were ready to march into the Red Zone, receiving an emphatic "Yes!" in response. Imran urged party workers to remain peaceful and avoid confrontation with security forces. ... Addressing police and security officials guarding the Red Zone, he urged them not to use force against his supporters.

On the other hand ... Dawn reports: Red Zone orders: Use rubber bullets, teargas and 'lathi charge'

Police deputed in Islamabad's Red zone area were authorised to use force against Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) protesters staging their Azadi March in the federal capital, according to the copy of a document available with Dawn.

The document, signed by a Supervisory Officer at the spot, allowed the use of rubber bullets, tear gas and lathi (baton) charge against the protesters if they entered the Red Zone.

Visuals and TV footage showed policemen and women, other security agency personnel (FC and Rangers) standing at the ready in riot gear.

And according to Reuters: 111 Brigade takes up positions in Red Zone

As twin protests in Islamabad entered a fifth day on Tuesday, the Pakistan Army has put its troops in Islamabad on ‘high alert’, with the 111 Brigade positioned in the Red Zone.

The 111 Brigade has often been used to secure Islamabad - as well as used in military takeovers.

Fearing any untoward incident taking place if the PTI or PAT enter the Red Zone, Lieutenant General Qamar Bajwa, Commander 10 Corps, contacted top officials of the Islamabad Police for coordination to ensure security of key government installations located on Constitution Avenue.

The troops were deployed in the federal capital under Article 245 of the Constitution. The government had taken this controversial measure for securing Islamabad amid the spectre of a political showdown. The army is however not bound to act in aid of the Islamabad police in the enforcement of this section unless Chief Commissioner Islamabad orders them to do so.

In an earlier report, a military source put the number of troops stationed in the capital for security duties at about 350. But the city administration had told reporters that over 500 soldiers had been deployed.

The Frontier Post says the march is on, despite security precautions: Security in Red Zone on High Alert as Marchers proceed

LATER:

Dawn is providing frequent updates on this page. Here are some excerpts:

9:22pm : "I'm coming! I'm coming to hold you accountable!" Imran says, as his mobile-container progresses forward. ... On the other side of the containers, a massive contingent of security forces await the marchers.

9:26pm: The PTI and PAT rallies have merged to advance as one.

9:28pm: Policemen in riot gear -- helmets, shields, batons, knee pads -- are seen patrolling the entrance of the Red Zone. A violent clash seems moments away.

9:30pm: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has said he will not resign under any circumstance, source say.

Workers wearing hard hats are taking pliers and clipping the heavy chains that have bound containers. It is clearly visible that Imran Khan is not at the front of the crowd.

Drones continue to cover the march as it advances.

9:38pm: DawnNews footage shows policemen laughing as they await the march advance. Drone footage shows hundreds of security forces standing ready.

9:45pm: The ... march participants have reached the precincts of the Red Zone. Imran Khan is flanked by senior PTI leaders Javed Hashmi, Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Pervez Khattak.

9:55pm: Female party workers shower policemen with rose petals and flash the peace sign, while some male workers hold up sticks and glass bottles to prepare for an impending clash with security forces.

10:00pm: Participants of the PTI and PAT rallies have entered the Red Zone and appear to be walking towards Parliament. Imran Khan earlier appealed to workers to stay peaceful and not enter any buildings. However, he directed his supporters to "take revenge" if something happens to him.

10:05pm: Television footage of the rallies in Islamabad so far show supporters of both PTI and PAT camps entering the Red Zone with ease. Police forces deployed for security have offered no resistance.

10:15pm: Most women in the protest appear to belong to the PAT. Police and journalists have estimated that Dr Qadri has amassed a larger crowd as compared with Imran Khan.

10:18pm: DawnNews is reporting that police has baton-charged PAT protesters near the Nadra Chowk.

10:26pm: More reports are emerging of skirmishes between security forces and protesters.

10:36pm: Federal Information Minister Pervaiz Rashid: "We are still trying to resolve the situation through dialogue."

10:45pm: Police personnel deployed inside the Red Zone look on as PAT and PTI workers march towards Parliament House. So far, the entry to the sensitive area has been largely peaceful.

10:50pm: DawnNews footage shows an injured policeman inside the Red Zone, who appears to be bleeding from the nose. His comrade takes a cloth to clean up the wound. It is not clear how this policeman sustained this injury.

11:05pm: [DawnNews shows a crane moving a container.]

11:20pm: A screengrab shows a glimpse of [PAT leader] Dr Tahirul Qadri seated in his vehicle, en route to the Red Zone. Footage shows Qadri holding a rosary and craning his neck to look out the windshield in an effort to take in events unfolding before him.

11:25pm: Minister for Railways Saad Rafique posted to Twitter, "Police is not using force because PAT, PTI march is leading by women & children."

11:30pm: Speaking to DawnNews, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi said that it is a peaceful march and the demonstrators will stay in the Red Zone till PM Nawaz Sharif and CM Shahbaz Sharif resign.

11:35pm: Barring a minor skirmish that left two PAT workers and one policeman injured, the march into the Red Zone has been largely peaceful thus far.

11:55pm: [PTI leaders spotted on a mobile stage cruising through the Red Zone.]

12:14am: "United States is keeping a close eye on political developments in Pakistan," says State Department.

"We appeal to the PTI and PAT to pursue a non-violent approach to resolve the issue...Pakistani political parties should work out their differences through dialogue," the US State Department said.

12:24am: PTI chief Imran Khan said that he has given Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif till Wednesday evening to resign.

"If Nawaz Sharif does not resign then we will enter into the PM House," said the PTI chief.

12:33am: ISPR spokesperson Asim Bajwa tweets: "Bldgs in red Zone r symbol of State & being protected by Army, therefore sanctity of these national symbols must be respected.

"Situation requires patience, wisdom & sagacity from all stakeholders to resolve prevailing impasse through meaningful dialogue in larger national and public interest."

12:55am: DawnNews reported sources as having said that the Pakistan Army has taken charge of the Interior Ministry's control room.

Former Punjab law minister Rana Sanaullah however has rejected the reports, saying that the Interior Ministry is still in charge of the control room.

And there's been nothing for the past several hours. So it appears the government is prepared to leave the protesters in the Red Zone overnight.

It is a very strange set of developments, to be sure.

No one -- not even Imran's fiercest opponents -- will question the purity of his heart. But many, even among his friends and supporters, are wondering whether he's lost his mind.

I have been posting updates on the comment thread at the Winter Patriot Community site. Click here to follow along, and please feel free to join the discussion.

37 Dead As Suicide Bomber Attacks Pakistani Political Rally

More horrible violence racks Pakistan in the final days before Monday's parliamentary election, as Jane Perlez of the New York Times reports from Lahore.

A suicide bomber rammed a car into a campaign rally in the tribal areas on Saturday, killing 37 people and wounding at least 90 others.

The attack in Parachinar, a town in Kurram, occurred two days before parliamentary elections on Monday and was apparently intended to deter voters from participating, said Brig. Javed Cheema, a spokesman for the Interior Ministry.

“It’s the same people who have been carrying out attacks, whose purpose is to create confusion and chaos and stop the polling process,” Brigadier Cheema said. The government of President Pervez Musharraf has blamed a Pakistani Taliban leader, Baitullah Mehsud, who is allied with Al Qaeda, for the steep rise in suicide attacks in the past year.

It seemed unlikely, however, that the attack on Saturday would have a significant effect on voter turnout because the tribal areas, which are semiautonomous and border Afghanistan, are considered remote and lawless by most Pakistanis.

Thus Perlez points out one aspect of the Interior Ministry's announcement that seems odd, but she doesn't mention the other: The government has no proof of anyone's complicity in anything.

She goes on to describe the scene of the attack:

The rally at Parachinar was organized by Syed Riaz Hussain, a candidate for the national Parliament who is affiliated with the Pakistan Peoples Party, the opposition party of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated in December. After the rally, supporters of Mr. Hussain gathered on a roof for food, and others stayed on the roadside below in a large group, Brigadier Cheema said.

The suicide bomber, driving a car filled with explosives, attacked the group on the side of the road, the brigadier said. Kurram is known for sectarian violence between Shiite and Sunni Muslims, although Saturday’s attack was aimed at a political rally. According to one account, the people at the rally had emerged from a Shiite shrine and were on their way to the headquarters of Mr. Hussain when the bomber drove into the crowd.

Hours later, two people were killed and eight wounded in a suicide attack outside an army media center in the northwestern Swat Valley, Agence France-Presse said.

The Parachinar attack was the first violent incident in the immediate prelude to the election that pits President Musharraf’s party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, against two main opposition parties, the Peoples Party and the faction of the Pakistan Muslim League led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

The first violent incident in the immediate prelude to the election but not the first violent attack of the campaign and likely not the last either, sad to say.

Mr. Musharraf was re-elected late last year to a five-year term as president, but the parliamentary elections are viewed by many as a referendum on his rule, which has been marred in the last year by an increasingly aggressive insurgency of Islamists, the killing of Ms. Bhutto and the imposition of emergency rule.

It's very interesting to see what details are left out of this report.

For instance, Jane Perlez gives no indication that Musharraf's "re-election" (last October 6) was even more "marred" than his "rule" has been. As we have discussed here many times, Musharraf's "re-election" was a tragic farce, the conduct of which violated three distinct laws. The Supreme Court of Pakistan was about to strike down the "result" of that "election" when Musharraf imposed emergency rule on November 3.

Musharraf said he was going after the terrorists, but one of his first moves was to sack the Chief Justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, and the eight other justices who refused to go along with the program. Those nine judges are still under house arrest, more than three months after the emergency was declared. These facts are well known to anyone who cares to learn.

So when the Americans send observers to monitor Monday's election, they are not really interested in democracy; if democracy were the goal, the US would have cut ties with Musharraf a long time ago. He did take power in a military coup, after all.

Oh, no. What the Americans are interested in is the appearance of democracy.

Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who will be an election observer, said Friday before leaving Washington for Pakistan that the United States should cut military aid to Pakistan if the elections were substantially rigged.

Guess what, Joe? The election last October was substantially rigged -- illegal three times over. The president could only maintain his power by arresting the Supreme Court and keeping them still and quiet, so that's what he did.

The rule of law is still suspended and the honest judges are still under house arrest and bombers are ravaging the opposition and the government keeps blaming it on "extremists".

But the fact remains that extremists are barely represented in Pakistani parliaments and have very little to lose in this election. Musharraf, whose hold on power grows increasingly tenuous, has much more to lose, should the election go ahead as scheduled and in peace. And therefore it is very difficult to dismiss the claims of those who say Musharraf and/or his security forces have been behind all this violence.

The American collaborators in this farce have said nothing about any of this; if they had any principles (other than maintenance of power) they wouldn't be sending observers at all -- they'd be denouncing the horrific Pakistani-American farce that pretends to be democracy.

This Is Democracy? Pakistani Opposition Leader Barred From Major City

The sham that masquerades as Pakistani democracy continued on Thursday as opposition party leader Imran Khan, who also heads the All Parties Democratic Movement, was barred from entering the city of Karachi, allegedly because the APDM has continued to call for a boycott of the parliamentary elections that are slated for February 18th.

Imran has stated many times that he will not contest any election until and unless an independent judiciary is reinstated. The former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and eight other Supreme Court justices who were sacked November 3rd, when President Musharraf declared a state of emergency are still under house arrest, more than three months later.

Imran has described the politicians who have chosen to run in the upcoming election as lending legitimacy to what is an entirely illegitimate situation, and it's tough to argue with him.

Without an independent judiciary to enforce the laws fairly, there's no possibility of democracy -- especially in a country that's ruled by a dictator who took control in a military coup. And he makes this point more clearly than any other political leader in the country.

No wonder they don't want him speaking in Karachi!

For more details, here's AFP via Google:

Pakistani authorities barred opposition politician Imran Khan from entering the southern city of Karachi on Thursday because he has called for a boycott of upcoming elections, officials said.

Former cricket legend Khan was put back on a plane to Islamabad after officials prevented him from entering the southern province of Sindh, of which Karachi is the capital, Sindh home minister Akhtar Zamin said.

"We do not want anything to disrupt the elections that is why have sent him back," Zamin told AFP.

"If he does not want to contest elections, it is fine, but he should not incite other people to do so. He will be welcome to visit Sindh after elections."

Khan, a former member of parliament and the chief of the small Movement for Justice party, has called for the boycott of general elections on February 18, saying fair and free polls were not possible under President Pervez Musharraf.

"It is for the third time that Imran Khan had been externed from Karachi and it is highly condemnable," Khan's party secretary general Arif Alvi told AFP.

"It is a violation of constitutional rights of a citizen to move freely in the country and government is doing this because it is afraid the charismatic personality of Imran Khan could create problems for Musharraf."

A coalition of parties, including Khan's, is boycotting the election in protest at ex-general Musharraf sacking top judges under a state of emergency in November.

Khan was held under anti-terror legislation for several days in November.

Imran Khan On DN!

Please watch this clip and listen to Imran Khan, the only Pakistani politician who makes any sense at all.

Imran Khan is a former captain of Pakistan's national cricket team, and the only Pakistani to lead his team to a World Cup championship. He did it with impressive skill, and even more impressive leadership; then he used the same qualities as a philanthropist when he retired from cricket, raising enough money to found a hospital for cancer patients -- the first and only one in his country.

Then Imran turned to politics, here he could have joined an established party as a famous face, winning a guaranteed seat and enjoying a long turn at the trough. Instead he started his own party, "Movement for Justice". As its leader, he rejects the corruption of all the other ("major") parties, and stands -- alone if need be -- for justice and democracy.

In this interview, he doesn't get everything right; for instance he still thinks the US is trying to "win" the War on Terror. So he tries to explain how to stop the terrorists -- as if the US government would ever do such a thing.

But you'll never find a more honest politician, here or elsewhere. He's boycotting the coming election -- passing up a chance to enhance his personal status in favor of trying to bring democracy to his country.

Imagine if we had a politician like Imran Khan! We should be so lucky -- we don't even have an athlete like him.

Democracy Now! : Pakistani Opposition Leader Imran Khan on Musharraf, Bhutto, and How the U.S. Has Undermined Pakistani Democracy

National Hero Imran Khan Arrested In Pakistani Clampdown, To Be Charged With Terrorism

Imran Khan, the only Pakistani politician who has ever won a World Cup or founded a hospital for cancer patients, has been arrested. He had been on the run since November 3, when Pakistan's President, General Pervez Musharraf, declared a state of emergency and cracked down on all his domestic opponents except the terrorists whose actions supposedly justified the declaration.

As you probably know, martial law is in effect in Pakistan, although it's being called by a different name. The constitution has been suspended and independent news media have been severely curtailed. Police have been targeting opposition politicians and their supporters, human rights advocates, lawyers and judges; meanwhile, the struggle against the militants in the mountains has apparently been suspended.

Khan, the former captain of the national cricket team, was arrested at an anti-government rally at Punjab University in Lahore. He was betrayed by radical Islamist students, who seized him and turned him over to the police, according to witnesses at the scene.

As the Scotsman reports, Imran Khan

was initially cheered by about 200 student supporters when he got out of a car on a university campus in the eastern city of Lahore.

But others representing the hard-line Jamaat-e-Islami party grabbed him and hustled him into a nearby building.

The radical students placed Mr Khan in a van and took him to a campus gate, where he was handed over to police.
...

Jamaat-e-Islami is also opposed to President Pervez Musharraf's emergency rule...

Imran Khan has been trying to spark a student uprising against the military government. One might think the Islamists who oppose Musharraf would support any serious opponent of the government. But things are never so simple -- especially in Pakistan.

Some observers of the current situation in Pakistan have seen signs of collusion between the radical militarist government of General Pervez Musharraf and the radical militants in the mountains, especially the radical cleric Maulana Fazlulla, who has been urging his followers to attack the army and police for quite some time now, but who does not appear to have been targeted in the emergency.

This view was bolstered shortly before the emergency was declared, when the government mounted what appeared to be a sham attack against the cleric; troops surrounded his compound and were reportedly firing shells into the area, but not targeting the compound itself. Maulana Fazlulla, who was not injured in the attack, was reported to be elsewhere at the time.

From this perspective, the Musharraf government appears to be orchestrating an elaborate charade, with Maulana Fazlulla as the ever-elusive villain, Benazir Bhutto as the "power-sharing" leader of the enabling opposition, and the real opposition figures either in exile (like Nawaz Sharif) or under house arrest (if not in prison).

Imran Khan not only sees this; he even talks about it. He's a proven leader and an independent politician; a man of honor and dignity; an utter nightmare for the Musharraf government and a danger to the grand charade.

The arrest does not appear to have been a surprise.

Imran Khan told AFP from police custody he was trying to start a student movement against emergency rule when he was arrested on Wednesday after more than a week in hiding.

"I came to the university to lead a rally of students against the dictator Musharraf and his illegal actions," Khan said, referring to President Pervez Musharraf.

"I would have presented myself for arrest in full public view but my goal was to set in motion a student movement."
...

"The majority of the students were with me there but a group of them from Islami-Jamiat-Tuliba (the student wing of the hardline Jamaat-e-Islami party) collaborated with the administration and police," Khan said.

"They took me into the office and then forced me out into a van. They did not allow me to be arrested publicly."

But the Pakistani police appear to have a surprise of their own:

LAHORE: Pakistani police said that cricket legend Imran Khan is to be charged under anti-terrorism legislation following his arrest on Wednesday.

"He will be charged under the anti-terrorism act," Lahore police chief Malik Mohammad Iqbal told reporters.

"Through his speeches he has been inciting people to pick up arms, he has been calling for civil disobedience, he was spreading hatred," Iqbal said.

Australia's The Age has a few more details:

Khan, who has founded a small but vocal opposition party, called for Musharraf to be hanged for treason after the military ruler imposed emergency rule on November 3.

He was being held in custody under a 90-day detention order, and police sources said he was being moved to prison shortly ahead of being formally charged.