Oil Reaches Seven-Month High On Expectation Of Airstrike That Didn't Happen ... Yet

Operation BITE, the "surprise attack" by the US on Iran that was said to be scheduled for 4AM local time on April 6th, didn't come, as we all know by now. But that didn't mean it wasn't a money-maker:

No U.S. attack on Iran, oil price hits $70 in expectation

TEHRAN, April 6 (RIA Novosti) - Washington did not launch air strikes against Iran early Friday despite recent media reports, but expectations of the attack have driven Brent price to $70 per barrel.

Russian and foreign media have recently reported the U.S. could launch an operation, codenamed Bite, against Iran at 4:00 a.m. local time April 6. The operation was expected to deliver air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over a 12-hour period to prevent the country from obtaining nuclear weapons.

"We are used to this situation. The Americans have been threatening us for many years, and they keep introducing sanctions against Iran," Majid, a salesman, told RIA Novosti. "But nothing has changed. We continue living and working as usual."

"I do not think the U.S. will take the risk - Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan," he said, echoing the opinion of many fellow countrymen.

Iran's Defense Ministry declined to comment on possible U.S. strikes Thursday night, saying it was closed for Thursday and Friday, which are days off in the republic.

And that's just about the perfect response, is it not?

Israel's DEBKAfile Web site quoted intelligence sources in Moscow in late March as saying a U.S. strike against Iranian nuclear sites had been scheduled for April 6 and aimed at setting Tehran's nuclear program back several years.

The air strikes were expected to hit a uranium enrichment center in Natanz, about 1,000 miles from the Israeli border, a nuclear research center in Isfahan about 210 miles south of Tehran, a nearby heavy water plant in Arak, and military command centers.

Israel, which destroyed nuclear facilities in Iraq in 1981, took charge of the first of 25 U.S.-made F-15I multi-role fighters in 1998. The fighters have a range of about 2,700 miles without refueling and have a load capacity, including air-to-ground missiles, of up to 11 tons.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said Thursday contacts between Moscow and Washington gave no reason to expect U.S. strikes at Iran in the next few days.

"I am more than certain that no strikes will be delivered tomorrow, and therefore there is no reason to panic," he said.

That's nice. But if we could be "more than certain" of the same thing every day, ahhh, what am I saying?

The U.S. has not excluded the military option in negotiations on Iran over its refusal to abandon uranium enrichment. The UN Security Council passed a new resolution on Iran March 24 toughening economic sanctions against the country and accepting the possibility of a military solution to the crisis.

A source in Russian security structures quoted Russian intelligence March 30 as saying the U.S. Armed Forces had nearly completed preparations for a possible military operation against Iran, and would be ready to strike in early April.

"Russian intelligence has information that the U.S. Armed Forces stationed in the Persian Gulf have nearly completed preparations for a missile strike against Iranian territory," the source said, adding, though, that the final decision would be up to the country's political leadership.

Russian Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical Sciences, said last week the Pentagon was planning to deliver a massive air strike on Iran's military infrastructure in the near future.

"I have no doubt there will be an operation, or rather an aggressive action against Iran," Ivashov said.

A new U.S. carrier battle group has been dispatched to the Gulf. The USS John C. Stennis, with a crew of 3,200 and around 80 fixed-wing aircraft, including F/A-18 Hornet and Superhornet fighter-bombers, eight support ships and four nuclear submarines are heading for the Gulf, where a similar group led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower has been deployed, U.S. Fifth Fleet Lieutenant-Commander Charlie Brown said March 21.

Russia's leading business daily Kommersant said Friday Brent prices had soared to $70 per barrel, a record for the past seven months, in anticipation of the U.S. attack, despite the release of British sailors and marines detained by Iran on suspicion of trespassing.

That's my emphasis.

And what does it mean? That's my question.

Have we all been taken for a ride by Russian intelligence via Webster Tarpley and RIAN on behalf of the international oil cartel?

Did the capture-and-release of the British sailors and marines forestall an attack that was actually scheduled to happen, and some savvy oil traders just happened to take advantage?

Who knows? I dunno. Tell me what you think and that'll make two of us.

Iranian Speaker Says Musharraf Says Pakistan Won't Help US Attack Iran

The speaker of the Iranian Parliament spoke to the press while visiting Pakistan, where he received assurances from General President Musharraf, as reported by the Russian news service, RIA Novosti:

Iran ready to defend itself from possible U.S. attack - speaker

ISLAMABAD, April 5 (RIA Novosti) - Iran is prepared to defend itself should the United States attack it, the speaker of Iran's parliament said Thursday.

The last few days have seen reports in Russian and foreign media that the U.S. has scheduled an operation, codenamed Bite, against Iran for 4:00 a.m. local time April 6. The operation, should it materialize, would deliver air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over a 12-hour period.

"The Iranian people are ready and determined to protect their land and to repel any enemy attack," Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel said at a press conference during his visit to Pakistan.

All this is quite unsurprising.

However, he said it was highly unlikely the U.S. would attack his country, as "the U.S. has no real reason to do so."

And that's a lovely bit of irony. But there's this, too:

The speaker added that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf had assured him that Pakistan would never get involved in any actions aimed at Iran.

Curiouser and curiouser.

Will Iran Bite The US? How Stupid Do You Think They Are? How Stupid Do You Think WE Are?

Political analyst Pyotr Goncharov appears to be laying the groundwork for something ominous his most recent op/ed piece for Russia's RIA Novosti.

Who will bite first, the U.S. or Iran?

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov) - The world is waiting for April 6, when the United States supposedly plans to launch Operation Bite against Iran.

Washington has accumulated the required forces in the region: two task groups in the Persian Gulf, including the aircraft carriers USS Dwight Eisenhower and USS John Stennis, four nuclear submarines, two dozen cruisers, and more than 400 sea- and ground-based aircraft, including Stealth planes that will allegedly carry out the greater part of the task.

The approved targets are the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, the Isfahan nuclear research center, the Araq heavy-water plant, the Bushehr nuclear power plant, air force and naval bases, air defense centers, and command and control headquarters.

The plans for a sneak attack are said to include a deceptive maneuver: the nuclear-powered carrier USS Nimitz left San Diego last Monday and is heading for the Gulf, where it is expected to replace the Dwight Eisenhower in mid-May. According to the logic of a lightning war, everyone will be waiting for the arrival of the third carrier, and so the attack, when it comes, will be a surprise.

Or so goes the story making its rounds on the internet. But Goncharov is not so sure.

The operation may not begin on April 6, despite the "telling signs" detected mainly by Russian military experts and the General Staff. One of the reasons is that there is no time left for the U.S. to speak about the "inevitability" of confrontation and warn Iran of the impending doom. [...] The Pentagon usually carries out pre-war demoralization preparations because they can reduce potential casualties.

Thus Goncharov arrives at a most perplexing question:

Will there be a war, and if so, when will it begin?

He traces a few possible scenarios, most of which we've all heard a thousand times already, and lands on a most mysterious note:

Tehran may be contemplating a pre-emptive "bite," which would only mean that the numerous deliberations about the "April 6 sneak attack" have reached their goal.

As to what that is supposed to mean, we can only wait and see.

I see this piece -- especially the final paragraph -- as a dire warning, but of what?

Are the Iranians, steeped in chess for thousands of years, masters of public conciliation as shown in the so-called "UK hostage crisis", going to provoke military action from the USA? How stupid do we think they are? And how stupid do you think we are?

But on the other hand, if the Iranians aren't planning an attack on USA, then what is this Russian political analyst talking about?

And now we've reached the heart of the question. Or as Rosie O'Donnell said the other day: "Gulf of Tonkin! Google it!"

Reports Of April 6 US Attack On Iran Are Groundless, Says Russian Diplomat

A Russian diplomat sees no basis to support previous reports concerning an April 6 attack on Iran by the US, according to the following piece from RIA Novosti.

I have been carrying RIA Novosti's stories on the reportedly imminent attack, supposedly code-named Operation Bite, and I have wondered out loud whether Iran's timely release of the 15 British sailors may have taken the teeth out of the operation, without halting the slow rush to war.

In any case, the timing and the wording of the following article are most intriguing.

No grounds to expect early U.S. strike against Iran - Russian diplomat

MOSCOW, April 5 (RIA Novosti) - There are no grounds to expect a U.S. attack on Iran in the next few days, a deputy Russian foreign minister said Thursday.

The last few days have seen reports in Russian and foreign media that the U.S. has scheduled an operation, codenamed Bite, against Iran for 4:00 a.m. local time April 6. The operation to deliver air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities was to have lasted more than 12 hours.

"Our contacts with the U.S. side give no grounds for such expectations," Alexander Losyukov said.

The U.S. has not excluded a military option in the standoff with Iran over its refusal to abandon its uranium enrichment program. The UN Security Council passed a new resolution on Iran two weeks ago toughening economic sanctions against the country and accepting the possibility of a military solution to the crisis.

Last week, a Russian security official said that Russian intelligence had information that U.S. Armed Forces had nearly completed preparations for a possible military operation against Iran and would be ready to strike in early April.

The U.S. Administration sees Iran as a "rogue state" and is determined to stop the Islamic Republic, diplomatically or otherwise, from obtaining nuclear weapons. Washington now plans to deploy a missile defense shield in Central Europe allegedly to protect itself from potential missile strikes from Iran or North Korea.

Russia, which is separated from Iran in the south by three tiny South Caucasus nations and shares a sea border with the Islamic Republic, has been actively promoting a diplomatic solution to the Iranian issue.

Captured British Sailors Return Home From Iran

The island nation celebrates the news contained in this account from the Guardian:

Captured British sailors arrive home

The 15 British sailors and marines freed by Iran are back on British soil today after 13 days in captivity.

The 14 men and one woman left Tehran on a British Airways flight this morning and touched down at London's Heathrow airport at 12.02pm.

They travelled in business class and were flying on in waiting helicopters to the Royal Marines Base Chivenor, near Barnstaple, north Devon.

Escorted to the airport by Iranian revolutionary guards, the Britons were installed in business class, with the few paying passengers in that section shunted into economy.

In a final PR flourish by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who announced their release yesterday at the end of a 90-minute monologue on regional history and global politics, the captives were handed gifts from the Iranian president as they left.

There's more on this "flourish" from Pakistan's news service Dawn:

Iran tv shows British sailors laden with gifts

Iran broadcast new pictures of 15 British sailors preparing to fly out of Tehran on Thursday, showing them opening an array of traditional gifts before departing.

The 14 men and one woman smiled and laughed as they sipped tea and waited to board their plane in the plush surroudings of the presidential lounge at Tehran's international airport. The pictures aired on Iran's Arabic language channel Al-Alam showed the sailors opening gifts that ranged from traditional handicrafts to Iranian pistachio nuts. Their luggage, packed into a combination of matching traditional Iranian woven bags and sports holdalls laid on by the authorities, was also shown.

This is the only event in the series that makes perfect sense, but it still leaves us with a barrel full of questions:

Did the British stray into Iranian waters? If so, did they do so intentionally? Were their commanders looking to establish a pretext? If so, the effort appears to have failed.

Or did they simply make a mistake?

Or did the Iranians "reach out and touch someone" in Iraqi waters? And if so, what was the point?

Did Craig Murray's intrepid work, promoting the truth about a disputed international boundary -- in the face of hostile opposition -- play a part in freeing the captured British sailors?

And has the Iranian president's "PR flourish" -- indeed the timely release itself -- knocked the teeth out of Operation BITE? And did they use my idea? Or did they think of it themselves? We may never know.

Things are now potentially set up for a much better Good Friday than I was expecting. But I can't shake the feeling that we are still being led on a long, slow march to a long and horrible war with Iran.

Unless...

Russia Says US Policy Toward Iran May Spark 'Clash Of Civilizations'

Further to previous posts about Operation BITE (a US "sneak attack" against Iran, reportedly scheduled for 4AM-4PM on April 6th), Larisa Alexandrovna is not buying it:

I want to address a report going around of a Russian general's allegations that the US is planning an air attack on Iran this April 6. I have gotten a large amount of emails about this article [by Webster Tarpley at OpEd News], in which a high ranking Russian general describes a US code-named ops called "Operation Bite."

While I find it highly likely that the US led six year covert war on Iran is likely about to spill over into prime-time, I have not been able to verify the claims made in that article. I have spent the last few days speaking to folks and no one finds this credible, and all for the same reasons. Moreover, no one has heard the April 6 date stated and no one finds the [allotted] time of 12 hours doable. Finally, everyone found the use of a single word for the ops - "Bite" rather suspect. The military rarely uses single word op names, but especially so under this administration who prefers long, sweeping patriotic sentiments such as Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (Iraq) and Operation Copper Green (rendition and detainment).

Or as one of my journalist friends said: "Operation Eradicate Tyranny" is far more their style. I tend to agree with this sentiment.

So while I do not claim to be right here, I did want to express my skepticism and to answer the horde of emails coming at me about this article. In the end, anything is possible of course.

I don't claim to be right either, and it's gratifying to see Larisa saying the same thing. We both just take what we've learned recently, add it to what we already knew, throw in a bit of analytic thought (or a lot, in her case) and maybe a joke or two (bad jokes, in my case), but in a situation like this, who can say they know anything for sure?

OK, ok, I've visited some wingnut sites lately where they're all dead-certain of everything they say, but I'm talking about reasonable people now. Nobody knows.

Nonetheless, it seems to me that this is the sort of information that should get passed along. So I'll keep watching for reports from Russia and Iran and elsewhere (since we've already seen that our own media are worthless), and we can look at these news items together and evaluate them just like we always do, in light of what we already know (and in my case with a bad joke every now and then)... (And I wish I could do more, but this is it, so let's use it the best we can!)

Having said all that:

If "Operation Bite" is a Pentagon code-name, it could be an acronym. They like acronyms. It could stand something like for "Bomb Iran, Tyranny Evaporates". Pretty close to "Operation Eradicate Tyranny" and also symbolic of the type of attack described here: One big chomp! Ka-Blam!!! Shock and Awe for 12 hours only.

I disagree about whether it's doable. We've got so many planes. They can all do one or more sortie(s) in that 12-hour period. They wouldn't want to use 'em all, but they might think about using most of 'em. Put together a really short target list, hit those targets as hard as possible for the 12 hours, and dare the Iranians to do anything about it.

As Larisa says, the covert war has been going on for six years. Lately Larisa and others have been writing about Americans sponsoring terrorist raids into Iran. They keep daring the Iranians to do something about it -- anything to serve as a pretext. So far the Iranians have been soaking it all up, not even reporting on it in their state media. So the maybe the Americans are getting bolder. In the run-up to the Iraq war they were running an extensive bombing campaign before the "war" officially "started", just hoping a bomber would be shot down so they would have a "reason" to start the war "for real".

Maybe they're thinking about doing something similar here. Who knows?

On the other hand, it could be that Larisa has it right (that wouldn't be the first time!) and we should look for alternative explanations to make sense of the article in question.

A wingnut blogger might tend to criticize Webster Tarpley, the "tin-foil hatter" who just coincidentally happens to have developed a conceptual model that makes perfect sense of 9/11. But surely Tarpley didn't plant those French-language articles in the Russian press.

Now, it could be a Russian psy-op, with a name something like "Bogus Information, Tell Everybody", designed to get bloggers blogging and anti-war folks calling and writing and mobilizing. Perhaps the date and time are made up. Perhaps the vague mumblings of "war imminent" was not enough to rouse the sleeping anti-war American giant, and the Russians are trying to get the American people to do something before all hell breaks loose.

(Side note: If this is the case, am I being used by the Russians? And if so, how do I feel about it?)

Or maybe it's a left blogosphere psy-op and the name stands for "Bush Is The Enemy". Who knows? I don't.

Now here's a bit of more recent news which Larisa will probably find much easier to confirm or deny. Again this is from RIA Novosti:

Moscow warns U.S. Iran policy may spark "clash of civilizations"

MOSCOW, March 27 (RIA Novosti) - Moscow urges the United States to avoid escalating tensions around Iran over its nuclear program as it could lead to a "clash of civilizations," the Foreign Ministry said Tuesday.

Washington has been pushing for tougher international sanctions against Iran, which it suspects of pursuing a nuclear weapons program. The UN Security Council passed a new resolution Saturday introducing further sanctions on Iran.

"The international community should not risk escalating the situation around Iran and should wait for the U.S. to make a good-faith effort to normalize relations with Tehran," the Foreign Ministry said in a foreign policy review signed by the president.

The Russian ministry said the Iran crisis could have devastating consequences for relations between "civilizations," and then the U.S. would have to prove it is not preparing for a "clash of civilizations" by building up "Fortress America," separated from the rest of the world by two oceans and strict border controls.

The term "clash of civilizations" is part of a theory that people of different cultures and religions will be involved in a post-Cold War conflict. Samuel P. Huntington popularized and expanded the term in his book The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order in 1996.

So clearly Putin knows what he is talking about ... and he's talking to the Americans in their language.

The Russian ministry said the U.S. was capable of reaching a compromise with Iran, and cited a visit by former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami to the U.S. in August.

"The trip of former Iranian President Khatami to the U.S. in August showed that dialogue between civilizations could become a useful channel for the Americans to establish contacts with Tehran," said the ministry review ordered by President Vladimir Putin in June.

Khatami was the most senior Iranian official to visit the U.S. outside the UN framework in more than two decades after the Islamic Revolution and the embassy hostage crisis in Iran.

But the US has not seemed interested in peace. The US has seemed mostly interested in oil.

Unlike the U.S., Russia, which is building a nuclear power plant in southern Iran, has opposed any tough sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Russian authorities have also been seriously alarmed by U.S. plans to deploy a missile shield in Central Europe to prevent possible strikes from Iran or North Korea.

In his outspoken address to the Munich security conference in February, President Putin said the U.S. missile defense plans could trigger a new arms race, and accused the U.S. of ignoring international law and imposing its own rules on other countries.

"We are seeing an increasing disregard for the fundamental principles of international law," Putin said, adding that Russia would amend its military strategy in response.

Even if Operation Bite is a psy-op, we certainly are seeing "an increasing disregard for the fundamental principles of international law", and the Russians have every right -- indeed an obligation -- to amend their strategy accordingly.

That doesn't solve our problem, nor that of the Iranians, but if Tarpley is correct and the Russians are trying to avoid WWIII, then it would be most prudent of us to help them. Would it not?

~~~

[see also]

March 19:
(French) L'Iran serait attaqué début avril (experts militaires russes)
(machine translation): Iran would be tackled at the beginning of April (Russian military experts)

March 21:
(French) Le Pentagone va attaquer des cibles militaires iraniennes (expert russe)
(machine translation): The Pentagon will attack Iranian military targets (Russian expert)

March 27:
(English) Russian intelligence sees U.S. military buildup on Iran border

Russian Intelligence Sees US Military Buildup On Iran's Borders

Further to previous posts about Operation BITE (a US "sneak attack" against Iran, reportedly scheduled for April 6th), here's another report from Russian intelligence sources (who seem to be leaking madly in order to forestall war), via the Russian Information Agency, RIA Novosti. Fortunately for all of us, the report is in English this time!:

Russian intelligence sees U.S. military buildup on Iran border

MOSCOW, March 27 (RIA Novosti) - Russian military intelligence services are reporting a flurry of activity by U.S. Armed Forces near Iran's borders, a high-ranking security source said Tuesday.

"The latest military intelligence data point to heightened U.S. military preparations for both an air and ground operation against Iran," the official said, adding that the Pentagon has probably not yet made a final decision as to when an attack will be launched.

He said the Pentagon is looking for a way to deliver a strike against Iran "that would enable the Americans to bring the country to its knees at minimal cost."

He also said the U.S. Naval presence in the Persian Gulf has for the first time in the past four years reached the level that existed shortly before the invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical Sciences, said last week that the Pentagon is planning to deliver a massive air strike on Iran's military infrastructure in the near future.

A new U.S. carrier battle group has been dispatched to the Gulf.

The USS John C. Stennis, with a crew of 3,200 and around 80 fixed-wing aircraft, including F/A-18 Hornet and Superhornet fighter-bombers, eight support ships and four nuclear submarines are heading for the Gulf, where a similar group led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower has been deployed since December 2006.

The U.S. is also sending Patriot anti-missile systems to the region.

~~~

[see also]

March 19:
(French) L'Iran serait attaqué début avril (experts militaires russes)
(machine translation): Iran would be tackled at the beginning of April (Russian military experts)

March 21:
(French) Le Pentagone va attaquer des cibles militaires iraniennes (expert russe)
(machine translation): The Pentagon will attack Iranian military targets (Russian expert)

Operation BITE Set To Attack Iran April 6th; Russians Call For Emergency Session Of UNSC -- Tarpley

Webster Tarpley is fluent in about six different languages and he's been reading the Europeans. Here's his most recent report, via Portland Indymedia dot org:

OPERATION BITE: APRIL 6 SNEAK ATTACK BY US FORCES AGAINST IRAN PLANNED, RUSSIAN MILITARY SOURCES WARN

GENERAL IVASHOV CALLS FOR EMERGENCY SESSION OF UN SECURITY COUNCIL TO WARD OFF LOOMING US AGGRESSION

By Webster G. Tarpley | Washington DC, March 25

The long awaited US military attack on Iran is now on track for the first week of April, specifically for 4 AM on April 6, the Good Friday opening of Easter weekend, writes the well-known Russian journalist Andrei Uglanov in the Moscow weekly "Argumenty Nedeli." Uglanov cites Russian military experts close to the Russian General Staff for his account.

The attack is slated to last for twelve hours, according to Uglanov, lasting from 4 AM until 4 PM local time. Friday is a holiday in Iran. In the course of the attack, code named Operation Bite, about 20 targets are marked for bombing; the list includes uranium enrichment facilities, research centers, and laboratories.

The first reactor at the Bushehr nuclear plant, where Russian engineers are working, is supposed to be spared from destruction. The US attack plan reportedly calls for the Iranian air defense system to be degraded, for numerous Iranian warships to be sunk in the Persian Gulf, and the for the most important headquarters of the Iranian armed forces to be wiped out.

The attacks will be mounted from a number of bases, including the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Diego Garcia is currently home to B-52 bombers equipped with standoff missiles. Also participating in the air strikes will be US naval aviation from aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf, as well as from those of the Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean. Additional cruise missiles will be fired from submarines in the Indian Ocean and off the coast of the Arabian peninsula. The goal is allegedly to set back Iran's nuclear program by several years, writes Uglanov, whose article was re-issued by RIA-Novosti in various languages, but apparently not English, several days ago. The story is the top item on numerous Italian and German blogs, but so far appears to have been ignored by US websites.

Observers comment that this dispatch represents a high-level orchestrated leak from the Kremlin, in effect a war warning, which draws on the formidable resources of the Russian intelligence services, and which deserves to be taken with the utmost seriousness by pro-peace forces around the world.

Asked by RIA-Novosti to comment on the Uglanov report, retired Colonel General Leonid Ivashov confirmed its essential features in a March 21 interview: "I have no doubt that there will be an operation, or more precisely a violent action against Iran." Ivashov, who has reportedly served at various times as an informal advisor to Putin, is currently the Vice President of the Moscow Academy for Geopolitical Sciences.

Ivashov attributed decisive importance to the decision of the Democratic leadership of the US House of Representatives to remove language from the just-passed Iraq supplemental military appropriations bill which would have demanded that Bush come to Congress before launching an attack on Iran. Ivashov pointed out that the language was eliminated under pressure from AIPAC, the lobbing group representing the Israeli extreme right, and of Israeli Foreign Minister Tsipi Livni.

"We have drawn the unmistakable conclusion that this operation will take place," said Ivashov. In his opinion, the US planning does not include a land operation: " Most probably there will be no ground attack, but rather massive air attacks with the goal of annihilating Iran's capacity for military resistance, the centers of administration, the key economic assets, and quite possibly the Iranian political leadership, or at least part of it," he continued.

Ivashov noted that it was not to be excluded that the Pentagon would use smaller tactical nuclear weapons against targets of the Iranian nuclear industry. These attacks could paralyze everyday life, create panic in the population, and generally produce an atmosphere of chaos and uncertainty all over Iran, Ivashov told RIA-Novosti. "This will unleash a struggle for power inside Iran, and then there will be a peace delegation sent in to install a pro-American government in Teheran," Ivashov continued. One of the US goals was, in his estimation, to burnish the image of the current Republican administration, who would now be able to boast that they had wiped out the Iranian nuclear program.

Among the other outcomes, General Ivashov pointed to a partition of Iran along the same lines as Iraq, and a subsequent carving up of the Near and Middle East into smaller regions. "This concept worked well for them in the Balkans and will now be applied to the greater Middle East," he commented.

"Moscow must expert Russia's influence by demanding an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council to deal with the current preparations for an illegal use of force against Iran and the destruction of the basis of the United Nations Charter," said General Ivashov. "In this context Russia could cooperate with China, France and the non-permanent members of the Security Council. We need this kind of preventive action to ward off the use of force," he concluded.

Tarpley provides the following links: L'Iran serait attaqué début avril (experts militaires russes) and Le Pentagone va attaquer des cibles militaires iraniennes (expert russe).

These pages are in French and I do not have time to translate them myself (at least not at the moment) but I have posted machine-translations as follows:

RIA Novosti (March 19): Iran would be tackled at the beginning of April (Russian military experts)

RIA Novosti (March 21): The Pentagon will attack Iranian military targets (Russian expert)

RIA Novosti: The Pentagon will attack Iranian military targets (Russian expert)

Published in RIA Novosti

Translated from French by Babel Fish

MOSCOW, March 21 - RIA Novosti. The Pentagon projects to conduct soon a massive attack against the Iranian military infrastructure, estimates the General Leonid Ivachov, vice-president of the Academy of geopolitical sciences.

"I do not have any doubt as for the reality of this operation or, more precisely, of this aggression against Iran", the General Russian in a maintenance with RIA Novosti Wednesday declared.

According to him, testify to it in particular the conference at the beginning of March in Washington to the Committee américano-Israeli (AIPAC), which decided to support the Bush administration, as well as the fact that a few days after the US Congress revoked his own amendment prohibiting to the president to attack Iran without its downstream.

"We drew from it the conclusion which this operation would have well place. In other words, the Israeli community of the United States and the Israeli direction - represented with this conference by the Foreign Minister of the Hebrew State - formulated the directive to attack Iran ", noted the expert.

But the United States does not project a terrestrial operation. "According to any obviousness, there will be no terrestrial invasion. It will be strike air massive and of wear, with an aim of destroying the military potential of resistance, the centers of administrative direction, the economic installations key and, if possible, a part of the Iranian direction", the expert underlined.

The Ivachov General did not draw aside the possibility of strike by means of tactical nuclear weapons against the Iranian nuclear sites. _ "It himself be that one call appel upon some load nuclear of low power", have it suppose.

The action of the Pentagon will be able to paralyse the life in the country, to sow panic there and, generally, to found a climate of chaos and uncertainty", the expert affirmed.

"That could revive the fights to be able it inside Iran. A mission of peace will have to follow to put at the capacity to Teheran a government pro-American", estimated the Ivachov General.

The purpose of all that will be to regild the blazon of the republican administration which will be able to thus declare that the Iranian nuclear potential was destroyed, it added.

Among the possible consequences of the military operation, the General quoted the dislocation of the country like Iraq. According to him, "this design gave results in Balkans, now it will be applied - if this one is not it already - with regard to the Large Middle East".

Questioned on the question of knowing if Russia were in measurement, by the diplomatic way, to influence the evolutions around Iran, the expert affirmed that "Moscow must exert an impact, requiring an urgent convocation of the Security Council of UNO to study the question of the aggression not sanctioned in preparation against Iran and of the non-observance of the principles of the Charter of UNO".

"And there Russia could cooperate with China, France and the nonpermanent members of the Council. Such preventive measures could contain the aggression", affirms the Ivachov General.

RIA Novosti: Iran would be tackled at the beginning of April (Russian military experts)

Published in RIA Novosti

Translated from French by Babel Fish

Iran would be tackled at the beginning of April (Russian military experts)

MOSCOW, March 19 - RIA Novosti. The Russian military experts estimate that the planning of the American military attack against Iran passed the point of nonreturn on February 20, when the director of the IAEA, Mohammed El Baradei, recognized, in his report/ratio, the incapacity of the Agency "to confirm the peaceful character of the nuclear program of Iran".

According to the Russian weekly magazine Argoumenty nedeli, a military action will proceed during the first week of April, before Easter catholic and orthodoxe (this year they are celebrated the 8), when the "Western opinion" is on leave. It may be also that Iran is struck Friday 6, public holiday in the Moslem countries. According to the American diagram, it will be a striking of only one day which will last 12 hours, 4 hours of morning to 16 hours of afternoon. The code name of the operation is to date "English Cock" (Bite). A score of Iranian installations should be touched. With their number, centrifugal machines of uranium enrichment, centers of studies and laboratories. But the first block of the nuclear thermal power station of Bouchehr will not be touched. On the other hand, the Americans will neutralize the DCA, will run several Iranian buildings of war in the Gulf and will destroy the key positions of command of the armed forces.

As many measurements which should remove in Teheran any capacity to counteract. Iran projected to run several tankers in the strait of Ormuz with an aim of cutting the provisioning of the international markets of oil and of striking with the Israel missile.

The analysts affirm that strike them American will be launched from the island of Diego-Garcia, in the Indian Ocean, from where will take off of the bombers with long operating range B-52 with on their board cruise missiles; by the embarked aviation of the American aircraft carriers deployed in the Gulf and forming part of the 6th American Fleet in the Mediterranean; cruise missiles will be also drawn since the submarines concentrated in the Pacific and with broad from Arabia.

Result, the Iranian nuclear program will be rejected several years in back. In private talks, American Generals suppose that the times of deployment of American anti-missile defense in Europe can be postponed. Another event envisaged, the oil barrel could fly away to 75-80 dollars and this for one prolonged period.

Meanwhile, the new resolution on Iran and whose project was adopted by the five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany should be voted with CS as of this week. The text envisages sanctions against 10 Iranian public companies and to three companies concerned with the Body of the guards of the Islamic revolution, unit of elite to the orders of the spiritual leader of the Islamic Republic, the ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Sanctions are also envisaged against 15 physical people: eight leaders placed high of companies of State and seven key characters with the Body of the guards of the Islamic revolution.