Revolution From Within: Is Violent Political Confrontation Imminent In Pakistan?

Imran Khan

"Change isn't coming...its here!" says Imran Khan to his supporters.

But what sort of change is it going to be?

[We don't know yet, but I am updating this post more or less continuously. Scroll down for the latest.]

With bated breath and a growing sense of horror, I am tracking current events in Pakistan, where Imran Khan looks determined to lead more than 50,000 unarmed supporters on a march through barricades reportedly guarded by police, military, and/or paramilitary forces.

Imran became a national hero as the captain of the only Pakistani cricket team to win a World Cup, and he did it by taking matters into his own hands, dominating the final game, apparently through force of will. After he retired from cricket, he became a philanthropist, creating a foundation to raise money to build hospitals, in a country where they were badly needed. And then he became politician.

Imran addressed the PTI rally on Monday.
[White Star photo via Dawn]

As leader of the PTI party, he has been gradually gaining ground "within the system." But now he is suddenly working "outside the system," leading a protest demanding the resignation of the Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif.

Nawaz Sharif says he will negotiate on any issue except resignation. Imran says resignation is his only non-negotiable demand, and that he is prepared to lead a procession of unarmed supporters into Islamabad's heavily guarded "Red Zone," seeking the immediate overthrow of the government.

Imran says there's a game-changing announcement coming at 8pm local time tonight -- less than two hours from now, as I write. And even Reuters has begun to pay attention.

Red Zone: Pakistan Army puts Islamabad troops on 'high alert'

I have been paying close attention to Dawn, the Pakistani daily. Dawn's home page is updated frequently and the coverage is usually quite good.

Peshawar's The Frontier Post is another good source at the moment.

I will update this post as time permits. But for the moment, here are a few links:

Dangerous game: PTI to march into Red Zone with women, children

Nawaz meets COAS [Army Chief of Staff] to discuss security situation

Needless to say, Dawn's editorial staff does not approve of PTI’s latest move, speculating that is represents Imran's exit strategy and a dangerous kind of political theatre.

There's more background and links to previous coverage here: Imran launches 'don't pay taxes' movement

LATER:

Dawn says: Red Zone security handed over to Pakistan Army: Nisar

Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan on Tuesday evening announced that Pakistan Army has been given the responsibility of securing the federal capital’s sensitive Red Zone area.

The Frontier Post is reporting that Imran is surrounded: Forces surround Imran Khan's container

An hour before the dead line for the March towards Red zone ends, the law enforcement agencies have besieged Chairman Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan’s container present at PTI's dharna venue in Islamabad.

The roads to Islamabad have also been blocked and the rangers have surrounded the parliament house.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had earlier issued strict orders to the police, not to use force.

Meanwhile, also according to The Frontier Post: Government agrees to PTI's five demands: sources

The federal government has agreed to fulfill Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) five demands including recount in disputed constituencies, electoral reforms, formation of new election commission and action against those involved in election rigging, Local TV reported on Tuesday.

So perhaps violence will be avoided.

However, Dawn reports the march is still on: Red Zone: Imran says I’ll lead, you follow

Hours after the deadline given to the government by the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) expired, PTI Chairman Imran Khan on Tuesday evening urged his followers and supporters to march into the federal capital’s Red Zone.

Speaking to his supporters near the most sensitive area of the country, Imran called on his supporters to follow him up to Parliament and surround the building. He asked his supporters to remain peaceful and not enter the building itself.

Reiterating that he would lead the march forward himself, the PTI Chairman thanked God for "fulfilling his desire of waking up the nation."

“We are not Pashtuns, Sindhis, Balochs or Punjabis, but only Pakistanis today.”

He asked his protesters whether they were ready to march into the Red Zone, receiving an emphatic "Yes!" in response. Imran urged party workers to remain peaceful and avoid confrontation with security forces. ... Addressing police and security officials guarding the Red Zone, he urged them not to use force against his supporters.

On the other hand ... Dawn reports: Red Zone orders: Use rubber bullets, teargas and 'lathi charge'

Police deputed in Islamabad's Red zone area were authorised to use force against Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) protesters staging their Azadi March in the federal capital, according to the copy of a document available with Dawn.

The document, signed by a Supervisory Officer at the spot, allowed the use of rubber bullets, tear gas and lathi (baton) charge against the protesters if they entered the Red Zone.

Visuals and TV footage showed policemen and women, other security agency personnel (FC and Rangers) standing at the ready in riot gear.

And according to Reuters: 111 Brigade takes up positions in Red Zone

As twin protests in Islamabad entered a fifth day on Tuesday, the Pakistan Army has put its troops in Islamabad on ‘high alert’, with the 111 Brigade positioned in the Red Zone.

The 111 Brigade has often been used to secure Islamabad - as well as used in military takeovers.

Fearing any untoward incident taking place if the PTI or PAT enter the Red Zone, Lieutenant General Qamar Bajwa, Commander 10 Corps, contacted top officials of the Islamabad Police for coordination to ensure security of key government installations located on Constitution Avenue.

The troops were deployed in the federal capital under Article 245 of the Constitution. The government had taken this controversial measure for securing Islamabad amid the spectre of a political showdown. The army is however not bound to act in aid of the Islamabad police in the enforcement of this section unless Chief Commissioner Islamabad orders them to do so.

In an earlier report, a military source put the number of troops stationed in the capital for security duties at about 350. But the city administration had told reporters that over 500 soldiers had been deployed.

The Frontier Post says the march is on, despite security precautions: Security in Red Zone on High Alert as Marchers proceed

LATER:

Dawn is providing frequent updates on this page. Here are some excerpts:

9:22pm : "I'm coming! I'm coming to hold you accountable!" Imran says, as his mobile-container progresses forward. ... On the other side of the containers, a massive contingent of security forces await the marchers.

9:26pm: The PTI and PAT rallies have merged to advance as one.

9:28pm: Policemen in riot gear -- helmets, shields, batons, knee pads -- are seen patrolling the entrance of the Red Zone. A violent clash seems moments away.

9:30pm: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has said he will not resign under any circumstance, source say.

Workers wearing hard hats are taking pliers and clipping the heavy chains that have bound containers. It is clearly visible that Imran Khan is not at the front of the crowd.

Drones continue to cover the march as it advances.

9:38pm: DawnNews footage shows policemen laughing as they await the march advance. Drone footage shows hundreds of security forces standing ready.

9:45pm: The ... march participants have reached the precincts of the Red Zone. Imran Khan is flanked by senior PTI leaders Javed Hashmi, Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Pervez Khattak.

9:55pm: Female party workers shower policemen with rose petals and flash the peace sign, while some male workers hold up sticks and glass bottles to prepare for an impending clash with security forces.

10:00pm: Participants of the PTI and PAT rallies have entered the Red Zone and appear to be walking towards Parliament. Imran Khan earlier appealed to workers to stay peaceful and not enter any buildings. However, he directed his supporters to "take revenge" if something happens to him.

10:05pm: Television footage of the rallies in Islamabad so far show supporters of both PTI and PAT camps entering the Red Zone with ease. Police forces deployed for security have offered no resistance.

10:15pm: Most women in the protest appear to belong to the PAT. Police and journalists have estimated that Dr Qadri has amassed a larger crowd as compared with Imran Khan.

10:18pm: DawnNews is reporting that police has baton-charged PAT protesters near the Nadra Chowk.

10:26pm: More reports are emerging of skirmishes between security forces and protesters.

10:36pm: Federal Information Minister Pervaiz Rashid: "We are still trying to resolve the situation through dialogue."

10:45pm: Police personnel deployed inside the Red Zone look on as PAT and PTI workers march towards Parliament House. So far, the entry to the sensitive area has been largely peaceful.

10:50pm: DawnNews footage shows an injured policeman inside the Red Zone, who appears to be bleeding from the nose. His comrade takes a cloth to clean up the wound. It is not clear how this policeman sustained this injury.

11:05pm: [DawnNews shows a crane moving a container.]

11:20pm: A screengrab shows a glimpse of [PAT leader] Dr Tahirul Qadri seated in his vehicle, en route to the Red Zone. Footage shows Qadri holding a rosary and craning his neck to look out the windshield in an effort to take in events unfolding before him.

11:25pm: Minister for Railways Saad Rafique posted to Twitter, "Police is not using force because PAT, PTI march is leading by women & children."

11:30pm: Speaking to DawnNews, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi said that it is a peaceful march and the demonstrators will stay in the Red Zone till PM Nawaz Sharif and CM Shahbaz Sharif resign.

11:35pm: Barring a minor skirmish that left two PAT workers and one policeman injured, the march into the Red Zone has been largely peaceful thus far.

11:55pm: [PTI leaders spotted on a mobile stage cruising through the Red Zone.]

12:14am: "United States is keeping a close eye on political developments in Pakistan," says State Department.

"We appeal to the PTI and PAT to pursue a non-violent approach to resolve the issue...Pakistani political parties should work out their differences through dialogue," the US State Department said.

12:24am: PTI chief Imran Khan said that he has given Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif till Wednesday evening to resign.

"If Nawaz Sharif does not resign then we will enter into the PM House," said the PTI chief.

12:33am: ISPR spokesperson Asim Bajwa tweets: "Bldgs in red Zone r symbol of State & being protected by Army, therefore sanctity of these national symbols must be respected.

"Situation requires patience, wisdom & sagacity from all stakeholders to resolve prevailing impasse through meaningful dialogue in larger national and public interest."

12:55am: DawnNews reported sources as having said that the Pakistan Army has taken charge of the Interior Ministry's control room.

Former Punjab law minister Rana Sanaullah however has rejected the reports, saying that the Interior Ministry is still in charge of the control room.

And there's been nothing for the past several hours. So it appears the government is prepared to leave the protesters in the Red Zone overnight.

It is a very strange set of developments, to be sure.

No one -- not even Imran's fiercest opponents -- will question the purity of his heart. But many, even among his friends and supporters, are wondering whether he's lost his mind.

I have been posting updates on the comment thread at the Winter Patriot Community site. Click here to follow along, and please feel free to join the discussion.

More Thoughts About The War Between The USA And Pakistan

Since I wrote my recent post about the war between the USA and Pakistan, some questions have come up which have put me in mind of a piece I posted about 18 months ago, featuring some very sharp commentary from a young female Pakistani journalist.

In a column published November 4, 2007, the day after emergency rule was declared in Pakistan, and in the midst of a strict political clampdown, Fatima Bhutto [photo] honored the restriction against ridiculing the President, General Pervez Musharraf, by not mentioning him at all.

But she extended no such courtesy to her aunt, Benazir Bhutto, whose welcome-home convoy had been the stage of an obviously false-flag terror attack. Fatima Bhutto referred to her estranged (but not yet assassinated -- did anybody say "martyred"?) aunt in glowing terms such as "a formerly self-exiled political dynamo" and "the Daughter of the East (read: West)".

Fatima also mocked the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), which granted amnesty to all (read: selected) former politicians. The NRO paved the way for the return of Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Ali Zardari, but denied the same courtesy to another former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, who was arrested at the airport and deported to Saudi Arabia when he tried to enter Pakistan in September.

The amnesty law, drafted in secret negotiations between Musharraf and Benazir, was brokered by Americans desperate to forge an alliance between Musharraf and Bhutto no matter what the cost to the country, and was proclaimed a step toward civilian democracy. But not everyone was deceived, even before the state of emergency was declared.

Fatima Bhutto's column was published in Pakistan's The News, and it was ostensibly a reaction to Newsweek's October 29, 2007 piece, "Where the Jihad Lives Now", but it covered quite a bit more ground.

The original link is ancient history, but fortunately the piece is not. I've added the photos. In light of what we have learned about Baithulla Mehsud since this piece was written, the text seems to take on a fresh air of overpowering evil. But I don't want to prejudice you against it.

As Fatima Bhutto says, "Let's spend a moment imagining just how spectacular our Iraqi style democratic landscape is going to be."

Iraq redux?

Wither Iraqi style democracy? According to a very ominous cover story in Newsweek, it's here in Pakistan. Newsweek is confident in asserting that 'today no other country on earth is arguably more dangerous than Pakistan'. Not even Iraq. In fact, according to Newsweek Iraq is so 2006, Pakistan is it now; we're the new black. We've managed to kick Iraq off the pages as the world's most horrifying, most destructively precarious country and reclaim the title for ourselves. According to the Newsweek article, Pakistan has 'everything Osama Bin Laden could ask for' including a vibrant jihadi movement, political instability, access to worrisome weaponry, and a lonesome nuclear bomb. The article quotes a now deceased Taliban commander as romantically noting that 'Pakistan is like your shoulder that supports your RPG'. It is swoon worthy stuff really.

While the Newsweek article is no doubt an excited piece of fear mongering journalism, is it actually so far off the mark? Not really. We have recently been brought Iraqi style democracy by a formerly self-exiled political dynamo (remember to say thank you). Our nascent 'democracy' has been shipped over to Pakistan at the behest of delightful Neo-Con masters -- George W. Bush et al. -- and is complete with letters from the United States Senate and phone calls from Condi. If this isn't enough to strike you as eerily familiar, there's more.

Like our own harbinger of 'democracy', Iyad Allawi, the American choice for Iraq's post occupation Prime Minister, was deftly assisted by a Republican lobbying firm in Washington D.C. Allawi's firm spent $340,000 in their campaign to push him as the people's Prime Minister. How much did the Daughter of the East (read: West) spend on her campaign for a glorious return? Democracy does nothing if not advocate transparency and accountability of its public servants, but not in Pakistan where we are a step above the rest thanks to the fact that our criminals are cloaked by the National Reconciliation Ordinance.

Similar to Iraq's foray into Neo-Con democracy, ours has kicked off with a spate of portentous violence. One hundred and forty dead? No problem. That's called collateral damage. They died for democracy, just like the estimated 655,000 dead Iraqis did. As Mistress Condi would say, these are the birthing pangs of democracy. Our Iraqi style democracy will be bloody, but we're being heralded into a new era. That should be a comfort to us. Before we go silently into this good night, it's worth taking a look at our predecessor. Let's spend a moment imagining just how spectacular our Iraqi style democratic landscape is going to be.

The corruption that plagued the Iraqi occupation will be no problem for Pakistan. The US led provisional Authorities, headed by Paul Bremer, managed to 'lose' $8.8 billion dollars worth of funds meted out by the US government by the time they handed power over to a 'democratic' Iraqi government. The Iraqi Central Bank also faced a mysterious cash shortage as millions of dollars disappeared from its vaults. Allawi's government, in time, managed to drain one fund of $600 million dollars, leaving no paperwork behind. What amateurs these Iraqis are. We're set. We have the NRO; there will be no money troubles in Pakistan, the new Iraq.

Poverty? We have that in spades. Figures from 2006 place eight million Iraqis as living on less than $1 a day. Almost 70 per cent of Iraqis are unemployed thanks to Neo Liberal shock therapy economics and some 96 per cent of Iraq's population depends on food rations. In Pakistan we don't have food rations for our poor, we let them starve. Note to self, we'll have to get on that.

Underdevelopment is also something we Pakistanis will beat Iraq at. Who does Newsweek think they're kidding? We've long been worse than Iraq and our successive governments continually pride themselves on doing absolutely nothing about it. More than 500,000 residents of Baghdad are deprived of running water and when they do have access to it, it's not potable due to the fact that 65 per cent of Iraq's water plants have been subject to leaks and sewage contamination. These figures, largely from US Foreign Relations Committee hearings and other independent American sources, offer proof of America's wanton destruction of Iraq. Pre-war Saddam era figures don't even come close.

Households in Baghdad receive on average only two to six hours of electricity a day, largely due to the collapse of Iraq's supply grid after the invasion. Prior to March 2003, Iraq's total power generation was around 4,300 megawatts, after Operation Iraqi Freedom it dropped to 3,700 megawatts. Isn't Neo-Con democracy wonderful? We have so much to look forward to.

A United Nations study of 2005 found that one third of Iraqi children suffer from malnourishment, whereas an Iraqi Health Ministry study of the previous year found that 'easily treatable conditions such as diarrhea' account for 70 per cent of deaths among children. We can match those figures, those brutal figures, and we don't even have a large-scale war going on. Baghdad has nothing on Karachi -- the many million residents of Lyari are routinely denied access to water and electricity. Households across this city in Malir, Ibrahim Hyderi, and Saddar -- you name it -- have always been deprived of these basic rights and not by occupational governments, but by our own 'elected' representatives. Tragically, we choose the very men and women who keep our city's neighborhoods entrenched in poverty. We vote for them. We'll probably vote them in again in 2008. As voters, we Pakistanis are either incredibly forgiving or monumentally stupid.

When Pakistan enjoys the same democracy that Iraq does -- and you know certain people are hanging their careers on this happening -- we won't even need hired armies like Blackwater to come in. Our police out-Blackwater Blackwater. They already behave like private mercenary forces, for hire wherever power and money call them. They do not protect and serve, no, not our police force. They are the protected and they serve only their own interests. Police brutality in Pakistan has raged for many years; Iraqi style democracy won't tame our vigilante cops, only empower them.

The violence is building, it's getting bloodier. Rawalpindi, Dera Bugti, Wana and that's only in the past week. Look at Swat. Once known for its beautiful Buddhist ruins and idyllic Northern beauty, it has been consumed by death and ruin. Just as Najaf and Karbala were overcome, just as Fallujah and Mosul were earmarked for destruction, so has Swat been. And what about those left behind? The victims of this rising violence? Like Cindy Sheehan, the courageous mother who followed President Bush all over the country holding a vigil for her son Casey, killed in the unjust Iraq war, we have our own mothers, wives, and sisters sitting Shiva outside government offices protesting the disappearance of their loved ones. Newsweek was not prescient; truthfully, they're a little late to the party.

As I wrote at the time,

The same could be said for the bulk of the American media, of course. A little late to the party, and with blinders on.

As for the American people, we still haven't even come to the party.

What is going to prevent Iraq-style democracy from taking Pakistan?

What is going to prevent the same thing from taking the USA?

If not us, who? If not now, when?

To comment on this post, please click here and join the Winter Patriot community.

Pakistan's Broken Coalition Faces A Null Transition

The eyes of the world will be on Denver this week as the Democratic party goes even further through the looking glass than anyone could have expected who wasn't paying attention all along.

Obama-Biden/2008: It's a world-class train wreck in agonizingly slow motion, and if that's not enough for you, there's another agonizing new disaster slowly unfolding in Georgia.

These of course are in addition to all the other disasters slowly unfolding in the rest of the world, most of which were already there three weeks ago.

But things are happening very quickly in Pakistan, where the governing coalition is coming apart, even as I write.

On the other hand, the eventual result of this "unpredictable crisis" appears to be well mapped out, and favorable to Americans of the elite policy-making persuasion.

It's funny how things work out in your favor once you start gaming the system.

~~~

The men at the center of the Pakistani drama are Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif.

Zardari [on the left in the photo above] is the widower of slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto who now leads the PPP, the Pakistan People's Party.

Sharif [on the right in the same photo], a former Prime Minister, leads the PML-N, one branch of the fractured Pakistan Muslim League. The other branch, PML-Q, supported former president Pervez Musharraf, who resigned last week rather than face impeachment charges.

Prior to his resignation, Musharraf made a series of moves designed to strengthen his position. He dismissed the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court after some court rulings displeased him. When that didn't work, he declared a state of emergency, sacked all the judges who displeased him, and kept them under house arrest. He used the Army and the Police to oppress his political opponents. He even changed the Constitution to give himself more power, adding a 17th Amendment which gives the President the power to dissolve the Parliament.

In a true parliamentary government, the power to dissolve the parliament rests with the Prime Minister for a very good reason.

A Prime Minister holds his position at the pleasure of the parliament he leads. If he dissolves it, there will be another election, and the winners of that election will determine who becomes the next Prime Minister.

So no Prime Minister can dissolve the parliament except at the cost of his job -- which he may lose permanently, depending on what happens in the election.

But a President needn't have any such qualms if he can dissolve the parliament, forcing another election, without losing his position. In this case the dissolution of parliament becomes a political weapon of choice, rather than a last resort.

~~~

In the most recent parliamentary elections, all the moderate opposition parties did well, especially the PPP and the PML-N.

These parties formed an anti-Musharraf coalition, nominally led by the most successful opposition party, the PPP. But the opposition parties had very different platforms.

Specifically, the PML-N had pledged to reinstate the judges, whereas the PPP had made no such promise. PPP in fact resisted the reinstatement of the judiciary, on the grounds that this might provoke a backlash from Musharraf.

So the PML-N agreed to help PPP to get rid of Musharraf, and in return the PPP promised that when Musharraf was gone they would support PML-N on reinstatement of the judges.

But Zardari never intended to do that, and he still doesn't, and now that Musharraf is gone, he's been forced into a corner where he has no option other than making his position clear. And his position is an ugly one ... but it's politically strong.

Zardari is supported by the Americans (very quietly, now that his wife has been killed) and by the PPP, which for historical reasons is the strongest of the opposition parties, even though it no longer represents true opposition.

But Zardari himself has no experience in politics, unless you count raking in enormous amounts of cash as a military procurement officer while his late wife, Benazir Bhutto, was Prime Minister.

And he's a free man in Pakistan only because of a "reconciliation" agreement promulgated by Musharraf, granting him immunity from corruption charges so he could participate in Pakistani politics in the wake of the assassination of his late wife, Benazir Bhutto.

Benzair Bhutto had been a free woman in Pakistan only because of a "reconciliation" agreement promulgated by Musharraf, granting her immunity from corruption charges so she could participate in Pakistani politics in the wake of Musharraf's dismemberment.

As for Musharraf, he was was torn apart on the rack of American foreign policy, where rogue allies play dangerous double games.

~~~

I'm still working on this post but in view of the breaking news I have decided to post it early.

I will continue to update it as frequently as possible, subject to work and other constraints.

For more background see my most recent post on this subject:

Pakistan After Musharraf: Same As It Ever Was, Only A Bit More So; Kinda Like What We Have Here, But Different

~~~

Care to comment on this post? If so, click here and join the Winter Patriot community.

Mass Resignations: Pakistani Cabinet Split Over Rule Of Law

In Pakistan, the opposition party PML-N, led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif [photo], has resigned its seats in the cabinet. This dramatic move shows enormous strain in the "coalition" government elected in February of this year.

The "coalition" is led by the PPP, which was led by Benazir Bhutto until her assassination last December, and which is now effectively in the hands of her widow, Asif Ali Zardari, although it is nominally led by their teenaged son, Bilawal "Bhutto" Zardari, who is currently in England seeking an undergrad degree.

At issue is the status of the Pakistani judiciary; Sharif and the PML-N have consistently stated that their top priority is the reinstatement of all the judges sacked by President Pervez Musharraf when he declared a state of emergency in November.

Asif Zardari and the PPP have talked about re-establishing an independent judiciary but they have thrown one roadblock after another in the way of their proclaimed goal, and in this respect their actions have spoken much louder than their words. In my view, it was only a matter of time before Nawaz Sharif -- who has seemed to see through this charade ever since it began -- obtained enough political support to make this break with the so-called "coalition".

The PML-N have not resigned their seats in parliament, so the government remains in power, although with nine of 24 cabinet positions vacant (including Finance), it doesn't seem as though the government will be able to function much, or at all. In short, the situation is very unstable at the moment.

The problem, from Zardari's point of view, is that a reinstatement of the sacked judges would put the Supreme Court back the way it was prior to the declaration of emergency: in particular, Iftikhar Muhammed Chaudhry would once again be Chief Justice. And Chaudhry, as Jane Perlez of the New York Times puts it, is a "maverick".

Perlez describes Chaudhry as a "country judge from Baluchistan" whose independence threatens the policies of George W. Bush and terror war "ally", Pervez Musharraf. The problem -- although Perlez does not and never will say so -- is that Bush and Musharraf are committed to the destruction of the rule of law, and Chaudhry, the maverick country lawyer from Baluchistan, is committed to upholding it.

Thus, any reinstatement of the Pakistani judiciary would put at risk not only the continuing tenure in office of President Musharraf, but also Pakistan's status as an ally of the United States in the so-called "Global War on Terror".

As long-time readers of this space may recall, President Musharraf was "re-elected" last October in a comic farce that clearly violated at least two (and maybe three) different laws.

Musharraf should not even have been eligible, since he was a General -- and Army Chief of Staff -- at the time. According to Pakistani law, one may only hold one office at a time; you cannot be both a soldier and an elected official at the same time, let alone Chief of Staff and President. For that matter, Musharraf's tenure in office has been illegal ever since he siezed power in a military coup in 1999. And the fact that he resigned his commission after his October "re-election" does nothing to satisfy the law he broke by running for office.

Furthermore, in Pakistan the President is elected by the members of the national Parliament and the provincial Legislative Assemblies. This is supposed to happen just after each new Parliament is elected; they then elect the President who will serve with them during their term in office. But for this cycle, Musharraf revised the timetable, scheduling the Presidential election for October 2007 and the Parliamentary election for January 2008, so that he could be "re-elected" by the same Parliament which had "elected" him in the first place. (The Parliamentary election scheduled for January was postponed to February following the assassination of PPP leader Benazir Bhutto.)

There's also a question of term limits. In Pakistan, as in the US, no President may serve more than two consecutive terms. Musharraf and his supporters claimed that his first term -- from when he siezed power in 1999 to when he arranged to be "elected" in 2003 -- was not a term at all, since he wasn't elected then. But those who oppose Musharraf have a different view.

The previous Parliamentary election was widely seen as rigged. And the notion that the same group of falsely elected Parliamentarians should be able to "re-elect" a military dictator to his third term as President seems exceptionally offensive to those who favor the rule of law. As I've been saying, the former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court is one of those people. Just before he was sacked, the Supreme Court announced that it was preparing to rule on petitions challenging Musharraf's "re-election". And the ruling was not likely to be favorable to the President -- this is why he declared the state of emergency and sacked the judges. So it seems quite likely that if Chaudhry were reinstated, Musharraf's presidency -- and the changes he made when declaring the emergency -- would soon be declared illegitimate.

This is not the first time Iftikhar Chaudhry has been a thorn in the sides of Bush, Musharraf and the GWOT. He was dismissed from his position amid a flurry of unsubstantiated allegations in March of 2007, after he supported the families of hundreds of people who have been "disappeared" by the Pakistani law-enforcement and intelligence agencies.

He was later reinstated after a large public show of support, but he didn't stay in office very long. "He's a threat to the GWOT," they said. And he still is.

Meanwhile, the PPP continue to play the role of faux-opposition, with Zardari apparently taking instuctions from the Americans who come to visit him every time he comes too close to supporting the rule of law or the much-ballyhooed "transition to democracy" which was supposedly represented by Musharraf's "doffing the uniform" and by Benazir Bhutto's return to the country to lead the "opposition".

In fact Buhtto's return was predicated on the proclamation of a "reconciliation order", which granted her amnsety from the corruption charges which had kept her out of Pakistan for most of the previous decade. Not wishing to show undue favoritism, the presidential order granted unconditional amnesty to many present and former government officials, effectively ending any hope of any Pakistani government official ever being held accountable for anything. Iftikhar Chaudhry might have a maverick opinion about this, as well. But we don't know much about what he thinks, because he's been under house arrest and incommunicado most of the time since November.

Meanwhile, in return for the amnesty -- and for the chance for another turn in power -- Bhutto agreed to keep the PPP in their seats last October for Musharraf's farcical "re-election". So the PPP abstained rather than resigning in protest, like the other opposition parties did.

If everyone had resigned except Musharraf's party, the PML-Q, the "re-election" would have been much more difficult to portray as "democratic". But with the most powerful opposition party on board, it was easy for the media to portray the dissenters as crackpots who just don't appreciate the wisdom of sacrificing the entire legal basis of our civilization so that a few corrupt criminal politicians can wage a bogus war without borders, killing millions of people, destroying one country after another, and making a fortune for themselves and their backers.

Crushing Defeat For Musharraf: "The Myth Is Broken"; "Q Is Finished"; "They Couldn’t Have Rigged It Even If They Tried"

UPDATE: PML-Q concedes defeat

ISLAMABAD, Feb 19 (AFP) Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) conceded defeat Tuesday after elections. “We accept the verdict of the nation,” Tariq Azeem, PML-Q spokesman, told AFP. (Posted @ 14:20 PST)

Original post follows:

~~~

Early and unofficial results from the Pakistani parliamentary elections show a landslide for the opposition parties and a crushing defeat for pro-American terrorist general Pervez Musharraf and his party, the PML-Q. The Islamic extremists also appear to have lost ground.

Supporters of the party of Pakistan's former prime minister Nawaz Sharif celebrate the unofficial results of Pakistan's general elections in the street of Rawalpindi, Pakistan.

Carlotta Gall and Jane Perlez in The New York Times:

Pakistanis Deal Severe Defeat to Musharraf in Election

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan : Pakistanis dealt a crushing defeat to President Pervez Musharraf in parliamentary elections Monday, in what government and opposition politicians said was a firm rejection of his policies since 2001 and those of his close ally, the United States.

Almost all the leading figures in the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, the party that has governed for the last five years under Mr. Musharraf, lost their seats, including the leader of the party, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussein, the former speaker of parliament, Chaudhry Amir Hussein, and six ministers.

Though official results would not be announced until Tuesday, early returns indicated that the vote would usher in a prime minister from one of the opposition parties, and opened the prospect of a parliament that would move to undo many of Mr. Musharraf’s policies and that may even try to remove him.

Sharif supporters celebrate in Taxilas. In early, unofficial results, Pakistanis dealt a crushing defeat to President Pervez Musharraf, in what government and opposition politicians said was a firm rejection of his policies since 2001 and those of his close ally, the United States.

The early edge went to the opposition Pakistan Peoples Party, which seemed to benefit from a strong wave of sympathy in reaction to the assassination of its leader, Benazir Bhutto, eight weeks ago, and may be in a position to form the next government.

The results were interpreted here as a repudiation of Mr. Musharraf as well as the Bush administration, which has staunchly backed Mr. Musharraf for eight years as its best bet in the campaign against the Islamic militants in Pakistan. American officials will have little choice now but to seek alternative allies from among the new political forces emerging from the vote.

Politicians and party workers from Mr. Musharraf’s party said the vote was a protest against government policies and the rise in terrorism here, in particular against Mr. Musharraf’s heavy handed way of dealing with militancy and his use of the army against tribesmen in the border areas and against militants in a siege at the Red Mosque here in the capital last summer that left more than 100 dead.

Others said Mr. Musharraf’s dismissal last year of the Supreme Court chief justice, Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, who remains under house arrest, was deeply unpopular with the voters.
...

By association, his party suffered badly. The two main opposition parties — the Pakistan Peoples Party and the Pakistan Muslim League-N of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif — surged into the gap.

Supporters of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif in Lahore. In Lahore, the political capital of Punjab province, lines were thin, and many voters complained they could not find their names on the voting lists.

By early Monday night, crowds of Sharif supporters had already begun celebrating as they paraded through the streets of Rawalpindi, the garrison town just outside the capital, Islamabad. Riding on motorbikes and clinging onto the back of minivans, they played music and waved green flags of Mr. Sharif’s party decorated with the party symbol, a tiger.

“The tiger has come!” shouted one man on a motorbike making a victory sign. “Long live Nawaz!”

From unofficial results the private news channel, Aaj Television, forecast that the Pakistan Peoples Party would win 110 seats in the 272-seat national assembly, with Mr. Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-N taking 100 seats.

Mr. Musharraf’s party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, was crushed, holding on to just 20 to 30 seats. Early results released by the state news agency, the Associated Press of Pakistan, also showed the Pakistan Peoples Party to be leading in the number of seats in the national assembly.

The Election Commission of Pakistan declared the elections free and fair and said the polling passed relatively peacefully, despite some irregularities and scattered violence. Ten people were killed and 70 injured in violence around the country, including one candidate who was shot in Lahore on the night before the vote, Pakistani news channels reported.

A voter is marked with ink after casting a ballot in Lahore. Fears of election fraud were stoked by the complaints, mostly from opposition parties, of bribery and the use of state resources for campaigns. Reports also included the production of thousands of counterfeit identity cards and of millions of names missing from voter rolls.

Fearful of violence and deterred by confusion at polling stations, voters did not turn out in large numbers. Yet fears from opposition parties that the government would attempt to rig the elections did not materialize, as the early losses showed.

Official results were not expected until Tuesday morning, but all the parties were already coming to terms with the anti-Musharraf trend in the voting.

Nosheen Saeed, information secretary of the women’s wing of Mr. Musharraf’s party, conceded the early losses. “Some big guns are going to lose,” she said.

At the headquarters of Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, the minister of railways and a close friend of the president, his supporters sat gloomily in chairs under an awning, listening to the cheers of their opponents. “Q is finished,” said Tahir Khan, 21, one of the party workers, referring to the pro-Musharraf party.

The party workers said Mr. Ahmed, who was among the ministers who lost their seats, was popular but had suffered from the overwhelming protest vote against Mr. Musharraf and his governing faction.
...

With Mr. Musharraf as both president and head of the Pakistani military — a post he relinquished last November — the administration poured about $1 billion a year in military assistance into Pakistan after 9/11.

After Mr. Musharraf stepped down from the army, the Bush administration still gave him unequivocal support. Last month, Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia, Richard Boucher, told Congress he considered the Pakistani leader as indispensable to American interests.

Such fidelity to Mr. Musharraf often raised the hackles of Pakistanis, and the newspapers here were filled with editorials that expressed despair about Washington’s close relationship with the unpopular leader.

Many educated Pakistanis said they were irritated that the Bush administration chose to ignore Mr. Musharraf’s dismissal in November of the Supreme Court chief justice.

The big swing against the Pakistan Muslim League-Q party that supported Mr. Musharraf appeared to bear out the position of the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, Sen. Joseph Biden, Jr, who has been a critic of the administration’s Pakistan policy.

On his arrival Sunday to observe the elections, Mr. Biden said: “I don’t buy into the argument that Musharraf is the only one. We have to have more than just a Musharraf policy.”

As a starting point for a new policy, Mr. Biden said that the United States needed to show Pakistanis that Washington was interested in more than the campaign on terror. “We have to give the vast majority of Pakistani people some reason to believe we are allies,” Mr. Biden said. To that end, he would propose that economic development aid be tripled to $1.5 billion annually.

But Washington could take some comfort in the losses of the Islamic religious parties in the North West Frontier Province that abut the tribal areas where the Taliban and Al Qaeda have carved out bases.

This is the standard liberal media lie, one of several places where it rears its head as "context" in this otherwise fine report. (Most of the others have been snipped.)

Washington needs the terrorists. Bush needs strong Islamic and Islamist parties which he can call "IslamoFascists"; the term itself is another Orwellian aspect to this war of spin and terror.

"The IslamoFascists want to create a global caliphate", says the twice unelected president, and all the bobbleheads nod along in unison.

But Islam and Fascism are utterly incompatible, so there cannot be any real IslamoFascists, although there are some seriously corrupt "Islamic" business-government combinations. Two of America's "firmest" Asian allies in the supposed Global War on Terror are Saudi Arabia, where the royal family does most of the business, makes most of the money, and runs one of the most repressive governments on the planet; and Pakistan, where the military is entwined in the "civilian" economy to an extent companies like SAIC, Halliburton and Blackwater can only dream of (at this point). The army produces and sells all manner of everyday "civilian" consumer items, from breakfast cereal on through the day.

These are the IslamoFascists, if such there are on Earth. Pseudo-Islamic fascists, to be accurate, and allies of our government.

On the other hand there's no doubt that pseudo-Christian fascists (so-called "Christo-Fascists") do exist in large numbers and have drafted plans -- published and publicly available for many years now -- according to which they will take over the American government (by stealth) and then the world (in the usual American way.)

In order for these imperialist dreamers to implement their evil schemes, the radical Islamic parties have to gain support, and perhaps the best news from this election -- news which probably won't make much of a dent in the mainstream account -- is confirmation that the radicals in Pakistan have virtually no support from the electorate.

The New York Times won't report certain aspects of the story, for fear of being called treasonous or for fear of lost advertising revenue, or simply because telling the truth about the GWOT is as unpalatable as telling any of the other ugliest truths about America, and the New York Times is not in the business of telling any of those stories.

But you've read it here: the administration is very unhappy with the collapses of both the PML-Q and the lunatic fringe.

The greatest blow [against] Mr. Musharraf came in the strong wave of support in Punjab province, the country’s most populous, for Mr. Sharif, who has been a bitter rival since his government was overthrown by Mr. Musharraf in a military coup in 1999 and he was arrested and sent into exile.

He returned in November last year and although banned from running for parliament himself, has campaigned for his party on an openly anti-Musharraf agenda, calling for the president’s resignation and for the reinstatement of the Chief Justice Chaudhry and other Supreme Court judges.

It's interesting how the NYT portrays Nawaz Sharif's reappearance at the center of Pakistani politics as a simple "return" in November. That was his second "return", actually. The first time, he was arrested and deported before he even got out of the airport! Some democracy!

Underscoring the reversal for Mr. Musharraf was the downfall of the powerful Chaudhry
family of Punjab province who had underwritten his political career by creating the political party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, for him.

“They myth is broken, it was a huge wave against Musharraf,” said Athar Minallah, a lawyer involved in the anti-Musharraf lawyers’ movement. “Right across the board his party was defeated, in the urban and rural areas. The margins are so big they couldn’t have rigged it even if they tried.”

A few hours after the size of the defeat became clear, the government eased up on the restrictions against Aitzaz Ahsan, leader of the lawyers’ movement that has opposed the president.

Mr. Ahsan, who has been under house arrest since last November when Mr. Musharraf imposed emergency rule for six weeks, found the phones in [his] house were suddenly reconnected.

“Musharraf should be preparing a C-130 for Turkey,” Mr. Ahsan said, referring to Mr. Musharraf’s statements that he might retire to Turkey where he spent his childhood.

Two politicians close to Mr. Musharraf have said in the last week that the president was well aware of the drift in the country against him and they suggested that he would not remain in office if the new government was in direct opposition to him. “He does not have the fire in the belly for another fight,” said one member of his party. He added that Mr. Musharraf was building a house for himself in Islamabad and would be ready soon to move.

Of course the official results are still to be released, and it could be that by this time tomorrow the PML-Q will have made a massive comeback. Or does that only happen in America?

It'll be pretty sad if "the greatest democracy in the history of the world" is shown up by a military dictatorship.

But it would be even sadder if that didn't happen.

~~~

(All photos for this piece are courtesy of the New York Times; please see this slideshow for more.)

Imran Khan Gets It; Do You? Elections Without The Rule Of Law Are Meaningless

The news from Pakistan is full of feel-good stories about the return of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who was allowed to return Sunday after eight years of exile in Saudi Arabia without being arrested and immediately deported, as he was in September when he first tried to return.

The government arrested thousands of Sharif's supporters shortly before his return, in order to prevent the occasion from getting too joyous, and deployed hundreds of policemen to cordon off the airport and try to prevent anything joyous from happening there either.

But they were unsuccessful, as a crowd estimated at a thousand breached the cordon and greeted the returning hero at the terminal. How poignant!

Nawaz Sharif may not be able to contest the election because of a prior conviction. But who cares?

Or maybe he will be able to participate after all. Pakistani observers have been speculating that Sharif must have made a deal with Musharraf, perhaps one similar to the National Reconciliation Ordinance which granted amnesty to (some) (current and) former politicians and thus allowed Bhutto to return from Dubai last month.

Sharif and Musharraf both deny that any such deal has been made. But the Indian news service DNA has some interesting details about the nonexistent arrangement.

Others have said that Saudi King Abdullah has been calling the shots here; he has hosted Nawaz Sharif ever since Musharraf deposed the former PM in a bloodless coup in 1999. The king also provided an airplane for Nawaz Sharif's return, and has reportedly given him two bulletproof cars and offered him a helicopter for the duration of the campaign.

Musharraf traveled to Saudi Arabia last week, his first trip abroad since November 3, when the President General declared a state of emergency (supposedly because of the threat of terrorism) and imposed de facto martial law (which hasn't stopped the terrorism, as illustrated by the 35 dead from two suicide bombings in Rawalpindi).

Perhaps Musharraf's clampdown has been ineffective because it has targeted judges and lawyers and human rights advocates and political activists, rather than the suicide bombers who are supposedly Pakistan's big problem.

Prior to November 3rd, Musharraf's big problem was the obvious fact that his October 6 "re-election" was illegal -- for at least three different reasons! -- and six petitions against it had been filed with the Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.

The court was apparently about to rule the "election" illegal, and whether or not Musharraf had already been thinking about consolidating his power by declaring a state of emergency, this was clearly the time to do it.

So the President General went to the Supreme Court and asked the justices to support his declaration of emergency. Seven justices (including Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry) refused, and then they were all relieved of their duties and taken into custody. All seven are reportedly still under house arrest.

Sharif and his brother and his wife and Benazir Bhutto are all getting ready to file their papers for the upcoming parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for early January.

Monday is the deadline for filing and Nawaz Sharif appears to have returned at precisely the last possible moment. Fancy that!

Independent opposition politician Imran Khan isn't buying it.

In his opinion, any politician willing to contest an election under these conditions -- with the Constitution in abeyance and the Rule of Law suspended, with political activists in prison and severe restrictions on what the media can report -- is merely lending support to the ongoing emergency rule.

Imran Khan is prepared to boycott the elections unless the rule of law is restored, the Constitution reinstated, the Supreme Court reconstituted.

And the alliance of democratic opposition parties says they'll call for a boycott of the election unless emergency rule is lifted within the next four days.

There is no indication that a lifting of the emergency is being considered.

But Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif and all their friends are filing their papers anyway.

O the bets one must hedge!

If At First You Don't Succeed: Nawaz Sharif Tries Again

Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is due to arrive in Pakistan in just a few hours.

He will be trying to re-enter the country for the second time in three months; he was arrested at the Islamabad airport and deported to Saudi Arabia on September 10th. He'll be flying to Lahore this time, traveling with his brother and his wife.

Nawaz Sharif was deposed and sent into exile in 1999 by Army Chief of Staff General Pervez Musharraf, who became President in a bloodless coup.

Speculation from Pakistan suggests that Musharraf may have been summoned to Saudi Arabia last week (his first foreign trip since he declared a state of emergency on November 3) and instructed to admit Nawaz Sharif into the national political process (so that the pro-American Benazir Bhutto would not be the only so-called "opposition" figure in the field).

In the wake of Benazir Bhutto's disastrous homecoming rally in Karachi October 18th, the government has asked Sharif not to do anything similar.

But after his arrest and deportation in September, it's difficult to imagine that his supporters would fail to greet him at the airport in numbers.

Pakistan Times puts it this way:

The workers will make 25th November a historic day by welcoming Mian Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif in an unprecedented way, says Hamza Shahbaz. Addressing a party meeting at PML-N’s office here on Saturday, PML-N leader Hamza Shahbaz said the time has come for the workers to welcome their leaders.

He urged all party representatives to mobilize workers in their respective constituencies. He also said the people of this city will prove tomorrow that Lahore is the stronghold of PML-N. PML-N leader Khwaja Saad Rafique said that Sunday will get rise democracy in Pakistan.

He said the PML-N workers will break all barricades on their way to Lahore Airport. The two-time former premier is due to land in Lahore on Sunday afternoon on board a Saudi royal plane, his party said earlier. An official has urged Sharif's party not to organize a mass welcome home rally "because of the current threat of suicide bombings and the law and order situation."

Online News Musharraf won't try to stop Sharif this time:

a senior government official talking to foreign news agency said the government would not obstruct exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s homecoming this time.

"We have no plans to arrest him," the official told foreign news agency.

"The president has said he would provide all political parties an equal chance to participate in the elections."

But the President didn't provide the same assurance to Nawaz Sharif's supporters, as Reuters reports:

Pakistan police detained thousands of supporters of Nawaz Sharif to stop them greeting the former prime minister on his return from exile in Saudi Arabia on Sunday, according to party loyalists.
...

"There will be no hurdle in his return this time because he's not returning without an understanding," a senior government official said.
...

Understanding or not, police detained activists from Sharif's party, known as the Nawaz League, before they could come out to welcome him, party officials and police said.

"They have arrested hundreds more people this morning, it must be more than 3,000 more," said Ahsan Iqbal, a party spokesman.
...

There were several hundred police, carrying riot shields, batons and rifles, at the airport hours before Sharif was due.

"Look at all these men in black," said Imran Abbas Lalika, a 30-year-old marketing researcher, travelling through the airport.

"They are here just to scare people," he said, surveying a concourse swarming with security and with a barbed wire barrier at the international arrivals exit.

Reuters has more.

Former PM Calls For West To Abandon Musharraf

The Pakistani press have been put on notice about subversive reports, so Dawn must be close to the line with this one:

Nawaz Sharif warns of Pakistan chaos, urges west to abandon Musharraf

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Nov 7 (AP) Exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif urged the west Wednesday to abandon President General Pervez Musharraf.

Sharif told The Associated Press that Pakistan was heading deeper into chaos and Musharraf had outlived his usefulness in fighting terrorism.

Sharif also ruled out teaming up with Benazir Bhutto unless she cut off talks with Musharraf.

"One man is holding the entire nation hostage for his personal interests," Sharif said. "The political forces, the lawyers and civil community that believe in moderation and democracy, they are sidelined today. Who is going to get the benefit? It will be the radicals and extremists, they will thrive now," Sharif said in a telephone interview from Saudi Arabia.

He predicted that unless the state of emergency was reversed and Musharraf ousted, the country could be pitched toward "catastrophe."

Sharif told the AP that unless he was able to return to Pakistan before parliamentary elections the vote would be a "farce."

I agree with Nawaz Sharif about everything except that last line.

Read it again and replace "unless" with "even if".

Death Threats And Court Challenges: Pakistan Awaits The Return Of Benazir Bhutto

[UPDATED in comments]

Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto plans to return to Pakistan tomorrow, amid a multitude of uncertainties and the threat of suicide bombing.

Legal uncertainties abound; the Supreme Court has resumed hearings into the legality of President General Pervez Musharraf's October 6 "re-election".

The Court has also pledged to review the "reconciliation ordinance" which grants unconditional amnesty to (some) former politicians who were run out of office (and out of Pakistan) amid charges of corruption in 1999 when Musharraf -- Chief of Army Staff -- took presidential power in a bloodless coup.

The "reconciliation" agreement -- long negotiated and hurriedly passed just before the presidential "re-election" -- permits the return of Benazir Bhutto and "paves the way" for her to become Prime Minister in a pro-American alliance with Musharraf, who has pledged to resign his commission in November, if his "re-election" is ratified. Otherwise he will definitely remain in command of the army, and probably declare martial law, if recent whisperings are any guide.

The reconciliation does not apply to another ousted politician, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who is not interested in any pro-American alliances, and who was promptly arrested and deported when he tried to return to Pakistan in September. But the Supreme Court has also agreed to hear a petition from his supporters arguing that he should also be allowed to return.

The impending return of Benazir Bhutto but not Nawaz Sharif -- not only to Pakistan but presumably to a very high position in national politics -- is said to have been quietly brokered by the Americans, trying to forge an alliance that will work for the "War on Terror" and against both Islamic extremism and popular democratic ideas.

Therefore, it's being heralded in some quarters as a great step forward for democracy:

"My return heralds for the people of Pakistan the turn of the wheel from dictatorship to democracy," Bhutto said at a news conference in Dubai, where she has spent much of her exile.

but as Carlotta Gall reported for the New York Times, not everyone is buying it:

The amnesty on corruption charges has caused a storm of criticism in Pakistan, not only from political opponents of Ms. Bhutto. Objections have also come from many ordinary people who are desperate for their leaders to be held accountable before the law.

Griff Witte of the Washington Post has an even more incisive assessment:

But Bhutto's democratic credentials are being questioned by many in Pakistan, who accuse her of undercutting a once burgeoning anti-Musharraf movement by negotiating a deal with the general. Under its terms, Bhutto will not have to face corruption charges that she alleges are politically motivated. In turn, she kept her supporters in the assemblies when Musharraf earlier this month won a new, five-year term. Other opposition groups resigned in protest, decrying the election as a farce.

Similarly, the President General's promise to "doff the uniform" is being portrayed as a great step forward for civilian government, even though everybody will recognize the same man, even in a business suit. And of course Musharraf has been maneuvering his friends and allies into key spots in the Army, in preparation for his resignation.

In the last few days. Musharraf and other highly placed government officials have been asking Benazir Bhutto to delay her return until the Supreme Court has ruled on the "reconciliation ordinance", but she is determined to stick to her original plan.

Her imminent return has attracted threats of suicide bombing from Beitullah Massoud, a Taliban leader from Waziristan, according to Griff Witte in the Washington Post, and the government has promised her the highest level of security.

Meanwhile there's a lot going on in the Supreme Court, which may not reach any decisions at all for several weeks!

~~~

I've written about some of these issues in much greater depth lately; for more background please see last Wednesday's post, "Airstrikes Hit Civilians In Pakistan: Hundreds Dead In Latest Round Of Terror War By Proxy".

Pakistan: Politics Growing Ever More Volatile As Former Prime Minister Looks For An Opening

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto is considering a return to Pakistani politics, according to the intrepid Carlotta Gall, who reports from Pakistan and Afghanistan for the New York Times and the International Herald Tribune.

Exiled leader considers political return to Pakistan

Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto is roiling Pakistani politics by talking of a power-sharing deal with President Pervez Musharraf and by saying in an interview that she might return to Pakistan before the end of the year.

Threatened with arrest, dogged by corruption charges, Bhutto has sat out the last eight years in self-imposed exile in London and Dubai, while still leading what is arguably the country's largest party with nationwide support, the Pakistan People's Party.

If you think American politics is difficult, you should see what goes on in Pakistan, where the overall situation is in many ways much more volatile.

In that time, she has seen Musharraf, her former chief of military operations, seize power in a coup. She has watched the political turmoil build here as Pakistanis grow restless under military rule, galvanized most recently by Musharraf's ouster of the Supreme Court's chief justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.

Members of her party were heavily represented in the outpouring of support for Chaudhry at a rally Saturday, a peaceful rally just weeks after more than 40 people were killed in Karachi in clashes related to his ouster.

As we have been discussing (here for instance), President General Musharraf is obligated by Pakistani law to call an election before the end of the year, and he is forbidden to stand for re-election as a military officer. It is widely believed that the President General sacked the chief justice because he was determined to uphold this particular law. To my nearly frozen way of thinking, this explanation makes more sense as "the last straw" rather than "the single reason", but I digress. In any case, popular support for Mr. Chaudhry has been strong, and visible, and growing. And Carlotta Gall has been very busy: here's her report on Saturday's rally:

Thousands Wait to Hear Ousted Pakistani Justice

ABBOTTABAD, Pakistan, Sunday, June 3 — Pakistan’s suspended chief justice led a cavalcade of about 100 cars jammed with lawyers and political supporters on a 75-mile trip from Islamabad on Saturday, continuing to protest his dismissal by Gen. Pervez Musharraf two months ago.

It was the first trip outside of the capital by the justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, since his trip to Karachi three weeks ago. Violence between his supporters and those of General Musharraf broke out upon his arrival in Karachi, leaving more than 40 people dead.

The government, lawyers’ associations and political parties have blamed one another for the deaths.

On Friday, the government banned protests in the capital, but there was no attempt to stop Mr. Chaudhry’s convoy as it left Islamabad on Saturday morning for Abbottabad, where he was to speak to the bar association.

Along the route, hundreds of people stood waiting at every junction and small town.

Kind of like what we could have here, if we had anything at all.

When the long motorcade passed, they tossed rose petals at Mr. Chaudhry’s car, played drums and chanted, “Until independence for the judiciary, the fight goes on!” and “Go! Musharraf Go!”

I've also seen an uncorroborated report saying that people were also chanting "Death To Musharraf!"

The President-General has been under increasing heat at home for his "alliance" with the USA in the so-called "War" on so-called "Terror", much of which seems to involve tracking down alleged terrorists who were allegedly trained in Pakistan or Afghanistan by ISI (the Pakistani intelligence service) or Al-Q'aeda (the two appear to be virtually interchangeable). Many in Pakistan and Afghanistan see Musharraf as waging war against Pakistan's friends and neighbors; perhaps you will recall that as of 9/11/2001, the Taliban government in Afghanistan was officially recognized by only one foreign government! But I'm digressing again. Carlotta Gall:

“This is not just a movement of lawyers, but this is for you, to bring equality for you,” Ahmed Khan, one of the lawyers representing Mr. Chaudhry, told a rally at the town of Haripur at midafternoon. “That’s why the chief justice is going around the country and why we want him reinstated.”

Mr. Chaudhry never left his car and did not speak to the crowds along the way.

Instead, one of his lawyers spoke.

“We are encouraged and invigorated with the spirit of this reception,” Ali Ahmed Kurd, one of lawyers representing the chief justice in his challenge against dismissal, speaking at Haripur, the main town on the way to Abbottabad and about halfway through the trip. “If things continue like this there will be no general or commander any more.”

He railed against the military commanders running the country and moves by the government to clamp down on the news media. “If you close these channels, can you close off the people’s voice from Karachi to Khyber?” he asked the crowd.

The Pakistani people are not simply upset about the sacking of the chief justice. There's a long list of complaints.

At Haripur, students, workers and retirees who turned out to hear the lawyers’ speeches complained of many things, including rising prices, the increasing gap between rich and poor, the failing education system, support for the United States global campaign against terrorism and the injustice of military rule.

“The work of the army is to defend the country, not rule the country,” said Amir Shehzad, 22, a chemical engineering student at Haripur. “There is a revolution happening. We are facing for many years a military dictatorship and people want democracy.”
...

Throughout the day, those interviewed along the route seemed to think that General Musharraf should not stay in power much longer. They called for elections, rather than a continuation of military rule.

“People do support the lawyers because they are talking about justice,” said Mubarak Dad Abbassi, 57, a government employee from Rawalpindi, early in the day, adding of Mr. Chaudhry: “I do think there was an injustice to him. People say he should be reinstated and Musharraf should go.”

When the motorcade reached its destination, there was a bit of a party going on.

When he arrived in Abbottabad at 11:30 p.m., thousands lined the streets to welcome him.

The opposition parties led by the former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were out in force, as well as religious parties and other smaller group.

Hundreds of lawyers waited for hours in an Abbottabad park, listening to speeches and poetry and dancing in the aisles and on stage to a popular song whose refrain refers to General Musharraf: “Uncle, why don’t you take off your uniform and go back home? Why don’t you take your pension and go back home?”

And then ...

The chief justice finally began to speak at 2 a.m. Sunday.

He told he lawyers that the judiciary should come forward as a strong institution that people could trust.

“You are waging an immortal struggle for the independence of the judiciary and the supremacy of law and the Constitution,” he said. “You have given a lot of sacrifices, but you are not alone. The judiciary and the ordinary people are standing shoulder to shoulder with you.”

He spoke of human rights and freedom of speech, citing articles of the a Constitution.

Ahh, the old rule-of-law bit. People still go for that, in a big way.

So the Pakistani government took a pragmatic approach:

The government did not try to stop the political rallies along the way in support of Mr. Chaudhry, and the police provided security.

Government pressure was applied instead to the private media channels that have been following him on his tour of the country.

The government media-regulating agency warned all television channels that live coverage of events was not permitted, apparently to prevent them from showing Mr. Chaudhry’s speech and the rowdy cheering and chanting against General Musharraf and the government. By midafternoon, no channel was reporting live from the event.

You see how easy that was?

Things won't be so easy for the President General in the near future ... or will they?

As Pakistan veers toward elections this year, and as Musharraf runs into mounting opposition over his plans to seek a second term, Bhutto, 53, is raising her profile once again and positioning herself as savior of the nation, someone who can lead Pakistan back to democracy and provide a final bulwark against Islamic extremism.

Despite his repeated insistence that Bhutto will not be allowed to contest the elections, Musharraf, aides and diplomats say, has been conducting discreet negotiations for some kind of deal that would allow Bhutto back and him to stay on as president.

Now there's a quid pro quo you could bathe in! Will it happen? Who knows?

Carlotta Gall's long portrait of the former prime minister is quite sympathetic, and well worth reading (especially if you gaze between the lines a bit) but probably not the final word on the subject.

Speaking of gazing between the lines, you might enjoy another blogger's take on all this. If so, check out "Pant Load in Pakistan" from the Rock The Truth.

And speaking of final words, the following news updates from Pakistan's Dawn will serve as well as any, at least for the moment:

U.S. lawmakers raise alarm over Pakistan politics

WASHINGTON, June 5 (Reuters) - Pakistan's use of violent intimidation to quell political protests threatens U.S. and Pakistani interests, and President Pervez Musharraf must be encouraged to restore democratic processes, several U.S. congressmen say.

The unusually blunt comments to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice by Sen. Joseph Biden and Rep. Tom Lantos, both Democrats, and Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen reflect growing U.S. unease with Musharraf's handling of a widening confrontation with political opponents and the prospects for Pakistan's stability.

“Over the past two months, we have witnessed the spiral of civil unrest and harshly suppressed protest in Pakistan with increasing concern,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter to Rice obtained by Reuters on Tuesday.

“The national interests of the United States and Pakistan are both served by a speedy restoration of full democracy to Pakistan and the end to state-sponsored intimidation -- often violent -- of Pakistani citizens protesting government actions in a legal and peaceful manner.” They said Rice should make a public appeal to this end.

Biden is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a Democratic candidate for president. Lantos is chairman of the House of Representatives International Relations Committee and Ros-Lehtinen is the panel's senior Republican.

Pakistani opposition says hundreds detained

ISLAMABAD, June 5 (Reuters) - Pakistani authorities have detained hundreds of opposition party activists in advance of a day of protests against the government this week, opposition party officials said Tuesday.

“Authorities have launched a massive crackdown against our activists and more than 200 workers have been arrested in Lahore alone,” said Shah Mehmood Qureshi, a provincial leader of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) which is planning a day of protests in Punjab province on Thursday in support of suspended chief justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry and the media, which is facing increasing government curbs.

Qureshi said the protests would go ahead despite the detentions.

An Interior Ministry spokesman said “some arrests have been made in Punjab where the government feels they were necessary to maintain law and order.”

A spokesman of the MMA, an opposition alliance of conservative religious parties, said some of its activists had also been arrested in Punjab although he did not give a figure.

Thursday ... Thursday ... a day of protests in Punjab province on Thursday ... I'll be watching!